THE results of the ScotGoesPop / Panelbase poll, commissioned after a crowdfunder that many readers of The National contributed to, certainly haven’t disappointed.
Not only is the Yes vote slightly higher than in the first post-election polls from YouGov and Survation, it’s also higher than in any poll conducted by a member firm of the British Polling Council since just after the EU referendum was held in June 2016.
It’s particularly striking that Panelbase are suddenly producing better results for Yes than Survation, because throughout 2017 and 2018 Panelbase were one of two firms (along with YouGov) who were consistently reporting lower Yes figures than other companies, and indeed were often showing a Yes vote lower than the 45% recorded in the 2014 indyref itself. Survation’s figures, by contrast, tended to be more on the Yes-friendly end of the spectrum.
But virtually all pollsters are now revising their methodology in the aftermath of the 2019 election, most obviously by ceasing to weight their results by how respondents recall voting in the 2017 election, and instead weighting them by 2019 recalled vote.
That could turn upside down all of our assumptions about who the Yes-friendly and No-friendly pollsters are. It certainly seems to have made a big difference as far as Panelbase are concerned, because in their last poll of 2019, there was an extremely substantial downweighting of respondents who voted SNP in 2017.
READ MORE: Converting No voters to Yes must be our top priority
In the new poll, there is still a downweighting of SNP voters from the 2019 election, but it’s nowhere near as severe. It may well be that the disproportionately large number of natural SNP supporters who abstained in the 2017 election has had a distorting effect on polls for the last couple of years, and that the Yes vote has been slightly underestimated throughout that period as a result.
The SNP may have been suffering in a similar way in Scottish Parliament polls. For a long time we had got used to polls suggesting that the SNP and Greens in combination were at risk of falling short of a pro-independence majority at the 2021 election, but the new poll is radically different. It implies that the SNP are on course to have an overall majority of seats in their own right. Once the Greens are taken into account, there would be a truly commanding pro-independence majority at Holyrood, well in excess of what we have at present. Most astonishingly of all, there would be a clear majority for pro-independence parties in the popular vote on both ballots – something that wasn’t even achieved in the 2011 landslide that paved the way for the first indyref.
The bolder elements within the SNP may look at these numbers and think there could be a golden opportunity to win an outright and unambiguous mandate for independence itself in next year’s election, if Nicola Sturgeon accepts that a Section 30 order isn’t coming and decides to use an election to double as a de facto referendum.
The most important caveat about all of the results in the poll is that the fieldwork was conducted just before Brexit actually happened.
READ MORE: Survation poll shows Yes support hit 50% for independence
Although everyone knew the appointed date and time, it may still be that the reality of waking up in a non-EU country will prove an emotional shock for Remainers that will drive Yes support higher still. Alternatively, the relatively benign nature of the transitional period could lead (temporarily) to complacency about the long-term impact of Brexit, and No support could start to creep up again.
As ever, all we can do is await further polls to discover which way it will go.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel