WITH a visit to the polling place and a new decade just around the corner, I find myself ruminating on the worst election campaigns of the last 10 years.
Gordon Brown’s terrible 2010 effort springs to mind, with its wince-inducing “that bigoted woman” comment. Then there was Ed Miliband in 2015. From the meaningless pledges carved on the ridiculous “EdStone” to the notorious bacon roll moment, he was doomed to failure. Theresa May’s 2017 run was also disastrous, of course, the then-PM’s astounding lack of personal charm and hated “dementia tax” ultimately leading to the grim chaos of the last 18 months.
After Thursday we may well be adding another name to this roster of failure: Jo Swinson. Unless there is some sort of dramatic - nay miraculous - change in the state of play, the Lib Dems are heading for a crushingly poor result in this week’s general election. If the polls bear out it will be the sort of result Ms Swinson, who has only been the party’s leader since July, will call “disappointing” in public, in the full knowledge such humiliation usually ends in a change in leadership.
READ MORE: East Dunbartonshire: The battle for middle-class Scotland
Current UK-wide polls put the party at around 12 per cent of the vote, considerably down on the 20 per cent plus of only a few weeks ago. Obviously, polls don’t tell the whole story and the party could well pick up a few seats from the Tories in London and other strongly Remain constituencies.
Crucially, however, Ms Swinson has nowhere near the level of electoral or personal support that allowed Nick Clegg to become kingmaker back in 2010. Indeed, in what would be a particularly painful case of history repeating itself, she could even lose her East Dunbartonshire seat; Mr Clegg was memorably ousted by voters in Sheffield Hallam in 2017.
It could and should have been very different for the Lib Dems when it became clear the Conservatives would not get a Brexit deal through the House of Commons. But rather than capitalising on the opportunities this presented, putting herself in a position of potential power, the party under Ms Swinson has blown it. Big time. How could this happen? Put bluntly, through a catalogue of basic strategic errors strewn with arrogance and ignorance.
First there was the terrible decision to put revoking Article 50 at the centre of the party’s manifesto. Rather than putting the Lib Dems centre stage on Brexit, the policy has side-lined them. Ms Swinson and her advisers obviously assumed Remainers would jump at this idea; in fact, even many of those most ardently opposed to Brexit believe a second referendum is a fairer, more democratic way to change the course of Brexit. Committing to ignoring the result of the 2017 referendum and revoking Article 50 means Lib Dems are now perceived by many – even on the Remain side - as extremists. Paddy Ashdown would be turning in his grave.
Then there was the bizarre spectacle of Ms Swinson presenting herself to the nation as the next PM. Talk about fantasy. As well as being all but electorally impossible, it was soon clear the voters were having none of it. Few outside the political bubble knew much about the Lib Dems’ new leader when this silly presidential push began, but polls show the more folk saw, the more they disliked what they saw.
Early on, during a Question Time leaders’ debate, the former Lib Dem minister seemed genuinely shocked when angry audience members in England took her to task over the party’s record in coalition with the Conservatives; she appeared frustrated at being asked to explain pesky past decisions like supporting austerity, £9,000-a year student fees and the bedroom tax, all of which had negative consequences for large swathes of the electorate. Ms Swinson crumbled under the pressure, the cringeworthy social media bravado around being a Beyonce-channelling “girly swot” quickly disintegrating. By the time she was telling Andrew Neil a couple of weeks later that she’d reverse everything she did in office, it was too little, too late.
READ MORE: Emotional Jo Swinson recalls late father’s support for political career
Compare how Nicola Sturgeon has grown in stature in the eyes of the UK-wide audience, viewed as able, coherent, passionate and authentic, even by many who don’t agree with her politics.
Speaking of Scotland, Ms Swinson has provided few reasons for voters here to switch to her party. Despite going on about the damage a Tory Brexit will do, she will not even countenance Scotland ever being allowed to choose a different future. Pro-independence Remainers already have a home with the SNP, Unionists with the Tories. The Lib Dem leader displays little instinctual feel for the Scottish political landscape, coming across instead – rather like Jeremy Corbyn - as a tin-eared member of the Westminster-elite. This echoes the wider problem Ms Swinson has wherever she goes: she seems to personify the privilege and arrogance of the political class that arguably led to the vote for Brexit in the first place.
So, I’m sorry Jo, but barring a miracle on Thursday you’re going on my worst campaign of the decade list. Let’s be honest, though - it’s a monumental failure of your own making.
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