THERE seems to be more than just a wee bit of confusion surrounding the latest Survation poll. Some might even call it wilful.
According to some in the mainstream media, this poll, carried out for think tank Progress Scotland, shows a swing in support of the Union by independence backers.
Well, they would say that.
But why can they twist the facts? Well, they’re not comparing like for like. They are comparing results that are in response to different polls asking questions worded in different ways.
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In the latest poll for Survation, respondents were asked to express their degree of support for independence on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 indicating total support and 10 indicating total opposition. Earlier polls did not use the same format, and should not be compared to this one.
Earlier this month, a Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times found support for an independent Scotland had risen to 50%, with a clear majority preferring Scottish independence in the EU to remaining in the UK after Brexit.
The result suggests the highest support for independence recorded in more than seven years of Panelbase surveys for The Sunday Times.
It represents a five-point gain on the 45% support the pollster registered on average in its surveys last year, and in the independence referendum in 2014, and is up from 49% in our last poll in June.
Crucially, these Panelbase polls are comparable as they ask the same question.
The truth is, the new Survation poll results show voters have actually swung towards independence since the previous poll.
Thanks to James Kelly at Scot Goes Pop!, we have the real story: the percentage of respondents who say that they "completely support Scotland becoming independent" has increased from 24% in the previous poll (conducted in March) to 26% now. By contrast, the percentage of respondents who say that they "completely support Scotland staying part of the UK" has fallen in the same period from 40% to 37%.
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If you also take into account respondents who are not on one of the two extremes, the pro-Yes trend is even stronger. The percentage of respondents who are on the pro-independence side of the 0-10 scale has increased from 35% in March to 40% now, while the percentage of respondents on the anti-independence side of the scale has declined sharply from 58% to 51%.
Mark Diffley, the independent polling adviser to Progress Scotland said: "Research for Progress Scotland is focused on the open-minded and undecided on Scottish independence. We do not poll on the Yes/No question, but the trend across different surveys shows a rise in support for independence since the 2014 referendum and our polling shows a growing proportion of open-minded voters.”
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