Monday
A REGULAR poll in a long-running series got the week off to a positive start as support for independence, bolstered by unease about Brexit and its consequences, rose to 50% for the first time.
The Panelbase survey of more than 1000 voters found that half of the Scottish electorate would vote Yes in any indyref2, a five-point increase on the average figure reached in previous surveys which had reflected the 45% Yes, 55% No outcome of the 2014 independence referendum.
On the basis of these figures Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, was quoted as saying the Tories could lose more than half of their Scottish seats in a UK General Election (down from 13 to five) while the SNP will win 48 seats (up from 35). Labour would retain a solitary seat in Scotland from seven won in 2017. The LibDems would gain one (rising to five from four.
READ MORE: Brexit is a triumph of the populist right-wing of Britain
Another poll by Progress Scotland, this time of more than 2000 voters aged 16 and over, found that 55% believed another independence referendum was likely, while only 35% believe it is unlikely. A majority, 53%, said Brexit had changed their view of independence and 62% backed an independent Scotland staying in the EU.
Former SNP MP and managing director of Progress Scotland, Angus Robertson (above), said: “Swing voters on independence are strongly opposed to a No-Deal Brexit and 59% say that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, they would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum. A clear majority believe that Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely.”
As the significance of the rising Yes support sank in, the UK Government was pre-occupied with the State opening of Parliament at Westminster and all the pageant flummery it requires, including the announcement of 26 new Bills that will all instantly be dropped once a General Election is called.
Quote of the Day
Jacob Rees-Mogg: “We’ll have to find out in a day or two whether I’ll have to eat my words or not – time will tell. There’s a line from Churchill saying that he often had to eat his words and he found it a very nourishing diet.”
Tuesday
NEGOTIATIONS continued in the Brussels “tunnel” and elsewhere as Brexit loomed one way or another in a political atmosphere that discouraged serious debate and encouraged jostling among the various political groupings and wild speculation over what might be, and might not be, happening behind closed doors.
Following his First Minister’s statement at her SNP conference speech that she would seek a section 30 order before the end of the year, Constitutional Relations Minister Mike Russell would not rule out possible legal action if the UK’s response was a blunt refusal.
“I think we have moved into a different time, there are different currents flowing here,” he said.
“The best way to get this is to make sure the people of Scotland don’t ask for a section 30 order, they demand a section 30 order, and it is clear that Scotland wants to go in that direction.”
READ MORE: This is the Union's fatal failure in the Brexit process
Meanwhile, a long distance war of words between the SNP and the Greens set a sour tone as Environment Secretary Roseanna Cunningham accusing pro-independence rivals of “sitting on their hands” in pursuit of challenging climate change targets.
The Greens countered with charges of hypocrisy but still had to explain why they abstained in the final vote at Holyrood which committed the Government to cutting emissions by 75% by 2030. Not ambitious enough, say the Greens who wanted 80%.
The row over the BBC’s editorial decision not to include the Sunday National, the only Sunday newspaper to actively support independence, in a review of the Scottish papers on the Andrew Marr (above) show rumbled on.
The BBC tried to say the selection was dictated by “news value” which begged the question of why an exclusive quote revealing that indyref2 was the SNP’s price for backing a Jeremy Corbyn government was not considered newsworthy enough.
Quote of the Day
SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford: “The Prime Minister has vowed to make the UK the greatest place on Earth – that is a comment straight out of the Trump playbook.”
Wednesday
STILL no white smoke but plenty of bombast as the mainstream media reported there was light at the end of the tunnel and European negotiators had almost reached an accommodation with their UK counterparts and it would soon be over to the UK Parliament to seal the deal.
Everything was balanced on a knife edge apparently, and the 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs who had previously been relegated in terms of power and influence were suddenly propelled to the fore again as the ultimate Brexit brokers who could make or break the deadlock.
READ MORE: DUP and other former allies turn on Boris Johnson's Brexit deal
Actual detail was as scarce as hens’ teeth but inside the Brexit bubble the imposition of a border in the Irish Sea, previously rejected as unacceptable because it treated Northern Ireland differently, was the recycled bait that the DUP might bite on if adequate sweeteners were provided. The legal text was ready, it was said, to underpin a Yes – to be scrapped if it was a No. A whole new script would have to be written if it was a maybe.
Not for the first time, EU access to Scotland’s fishing waters in some form or another emerged as a bargaining chip but the language coming out of Brussels was meticulously balanced and crafted to simultaneously encourage optimism and deflate expectation – a diplomatic master class in trying to be all things to all people. While European chief negotiator Donald Tusk was relentlessly circumspect, veering between saying an agreement was all tied up before citing fresh doubts.
Germany’s Angela Merkel (above) and France’s Emmanuel Macron feared the worst. Prime Minister Johnson grabbed attention by his notably colourful descriptions comparing the negotiating process to, first, the prison break drama Shawshank Redemption where an escapee has to crawl though a sewer to get out and, secondly, to the Hillary Step on Everest – the last major obstacle climbers face before reaching the summit.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“You can have the best headlines and the greatest oratory and the most arresting phrases but they’re of no use if they don’t practically deliver for people.”
Former Prime Minister Theresa May
Thursday
THE day dawns with a sudden fanfare and a deal on the table as all 28 European leaders, Boris Johnson included, flocked to Brussels for a summit that effectively had one item on the agenda – Brexit.
Prime Minister Johnson, not surprisingly, praised the last-minute deal copiously but missed the chance to invent one of his trademark metaphors or allusions.
For once, the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker (below) was standing shoulder to shoulder with him arguing that the deal was “fair and balanced” and a good outcome for both sides.
Johnson has supposedly told Juncker that he is confident of talking round enough of his opponents to get Westminster approval, a considerable task and something that has been tried by others before him.
Juncker, getting a little ahead of himself, ventured that an extension of the October 31 deadline was no longer required.
Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar admitted he had made major concessions but was resolute in recommending it to the European Council for endorsement and hoped that the UK might now be able leave the EU in orderly fashion. His friends in Northern Ireland were not so sure and the stern faces of the DUP got a little sterner as they resolutely re-stated their opposition.
Other European voices were cautious, and more sceptical.
French President Macron (above) and Belgian prime minister Charles Michel did not think it was yet a done deal “based on previous experience”.
In Scotland, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the proposed deal was another reason why Scotland would be better off with independence.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said it was a sell-out and worse than previous rejected deals. Back in Brussels EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that legal underpinning was all in order and ready to go.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I am not in charge of Parliamentary affairs of Britain.”
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of European Commission
Friday
BORIS Johnson went to bed with a smug, self-satisfied smile on his face but woke with a deepening frown and the realisation that his pet deal, despite the victory speeches and back-slapping in Brussels, was not yet out of the woods.
With the Brexit deal subject to Westminster approval on Saturday in the first Parliamentary session on a weekend for almost 40 years, another level of negotiation clicked into place to address MP maths that conspire to have the frustrating quality of adding up to different totals, amply illustrated with fluid graphics in newspapers and websites.
The Tories are largely in favour, apart from a feisty band of rebels who might yet be talked round. The SNP and the Greens are solidly against, as are the LibDems.
The cussed Brexit Party are confusingly against too but, since they have no elected MPs, don’t matter.
Labour, according to Jeremy Corbyn, are against but he doesn’t speak for a bunch of wavering MPs in Leave constituencies looking to save their own skins rather than prevent the Brexit tragedy.
The ten DUP members, led by Arlene Foster (below) and recovering from their ill-advised flirtation with Tory hubris, are even more staunchly against.
Potential abstentions on either side set up a whole new equation.
The opposition loosely gathered themselves around a hypothetical banner with the mantra “defeat deal, win deadline extension, hold General Election”. The Court of Session declined to declare the deal unlawful but other legal challenges are in reserve to keep the pressure on.
Johnson knew all this when he hauled himself out of bed and girded his loins for the renewed fray. His plan was to set out on a “charm offensive” aimed at swithering individuals. Bribery was not explicit, flattery was assured as he demonstrated his next trick – after pulling a last minute deal out of the hat – of getting a majority to agree to it.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Interesting how the right is cock-ahoop today. They know that if this deal gets through (especially with Labour votes) the left/libs are smashed for the foreseeable future. Stakes could not be higher.”
Former Labour special adviser Ayesha Hazarika
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