BORIS Johnson's new Brexit deal was approved by the EU today, but questions remain over whether the House of Commons will also support it. 

The revised withdrawal agreement removes the Irish backstop which was an aspect of Theresa May's deal many MPs said they could not support, and replaces it with a series of arrangements for Northern Ireland revolving around goods, VAT and the single market. The Northern Irish Assembly will get to vote on whether or not they want to continue these arrangements every four years.

The 10 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MPs, who are meant to vote alongside the Tory Government on key measures that would otherwise topple the Government, did not support May's withdrawal agreement because of the backstop. As Unionists, they do not accept Northern Ireland being treated differently to the rest of the UK.

READ MORE: Ian Blackford: Scotland has been treated abhorrently over Brexit

Today they said they would not back Johnson's new proposals either, with deputy leader Nigel Dodds saying: "These proposals are not, in our view, beneficial to the economic well-being of Northern Ireland and they undermine the integrity of the Union."

Johnson's plan could also be thwarted by European Research Group, a group of 28 Brexiteer Tories who rejected May's withdrawal agreement. The Prime Minister has this group on his side more than May did, as he promoted some members to his Cabinet, but that does not necessarily mean every member of the group will be on his side. Steve Baker, the ERG chair, has yet to confirm the ERG's support of the agreement.

Based on a fantastic graphic put together by the Cicero Group, here are several scenarios and how they could play out for Johnson's government:

For each scenario, it is presumed that SNP MPs will reject, the majority of LibDems will reject, Plaid Cymru will reject, Green will reject and around a third of the independent MPs will reject. Most Tories will support

Best-case scenario (+51):

- DUP support
- ERG support 
- Labour MPs hoping for a deal support
- Labour MPs from Leave areas support
Most of the now-independent former Tories support

With these groups on board, the Tories would easily get the deal through by 51 votes. 

However, it is unlikely that all of these groups, especially the DUP, will back the agreement. 

A reasonable win (+29): 

- ERG support
-
Labour MPs hoping for a deal support
- Labour MPs from Leave areas support
- Most of the now-independent former Tories support

This one is possible would rely on having 22 Labour MPs support the deal. This is quite a significant number.

Base-case scenario (-5): 

- ERG support
-
Only Labour MPs who backed May's deal support
- Most of the now-independent former Tories support

Worst-case scenario (-55):

- DUP reject
- ERG reject
-
Only Labour MPs who backed May's deal support
- Most of the now-independent former Tories support

This too is fairly unlikely since some ERG members have already indicated they will back the deal. But things could easily change before Saturday.