SCOTLAND’s deficit could be down to 3% within two years of a Yes vote in 2020, the SNP’s Keith Brown has claimed.
Writing in The National today, Nicola Sturgeon’s depute leader says this week’s GERS figures, revealing Scotland’s notional deficit had fallen from 8.1% to 7%, showed that the country could close the gap between what it earns and what it spends without having to resort to austerity.
Brown says the GERS figures back up the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission, which proposed that an independent Scotland would start out with an annual budget deficit of just under 6%, which would then be whittled down through sensible budgeting.
READ MORE: This is how we can get deficit down to 3% within two years of a Yes vote
The First Minister’s preferred date for a referendum is in the second half of next year – and Brown claims Scotland could have a deficit of just 3%, the level which is acceptable within the EU, within two years of a successful Yes vote in indyref2.
The MSP writes: “Following the Growth Commission model, Scotland’s starting deficit would be reduced by a further 1.5%, by reducing spending on reserved matters such as defence and debt.
“This year, the deficit fell by 1%. So, on that trajectory, it would only take us less than three years from now to get to the Growth Commission target of 3% – something which was predicted to happen gradually, over the course of 10 years.”
Though he adds, “the robust performance of our economy has all been put at risk by the UK Government’s EU exit plans and in particular a No-Deal Brexit, which poses a huge threat to jobs, investment and living standards.”
He argues that Brexit makes a case for independence: “It is clear that Scotland needs to be in charge of our own tax and spending - so that we can build an economic policy based on jobs and growth, and keep the proceeds of that growth in Scotland.”
Meanwhile, the Fraser of Allander Institute has debunked claims that Scotland is responsible for half of the UK’s deficit. GERS revealed that Scotland’s notional deficit in 2017/18 was £12.6bn while the UK’s deficit as a whole has now fallen to £23.5bn.
The FAI said the latest Office of National Statistic figures show that three regions, London, the South East and East of England, contribute more in taxes than they spend on public services while nine others, including Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland contribute less in taxes than they spend on public services.
They said: “Comparing the £bn figure for Scotland to the equivalent UK figure is simply not a valid comparison. Statements such as ‘the GERS figures imply that Scotland is responsible for 60% of the UK’s deficit’ are just statistically meaningless. The Strathclyde University-based institute claimed it would be more accurate to say that “Scotland makes up 13% of the total deficit contributed by the nine regions of the UK who raise less in taxes than they spend on public services.”
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