I MANAGED a week away in the sun recently and treated myself to a digital detox, with the phone and iPad locked away in the hotel safe. They were on once a day to check in but otherwise I spent time in the moment rather than thinking of nasty things far away. I’d highly recommend it! It was probably a good time to be taking a break as it seems everyone allegedly in charge of the UK has lost their marbles. I’ll come back to that in later columns but this week I have better news.
On my return, I was soon off up to Shetland to go help out in out with the Holyrood by-election there.
One of the many things I love about being an MEP is that I represent the whole of Scotland, from Unst to Stranraer and the Butt of Lewis to Coldstream. Since 2004, I’m proud to say there’s not a constituency I haven’t campaigned in, not a branch I haven’t worked with, and Shetland is no exception.
Shetland, and Orkney, have a reputation for being staunchly Liberal Democrat. There’s no denying that the LibDems currently hold both seats in Holyrood and the combined Westminster seat comprising both island groups, but I have to say that over the years I have been visiting I’ve noticed a decline in enthusiasm and their support. The MP Alistair Carmichael, below, remains in office, but since the “Frenchgate” affair there remains a cloud over his efforts.
As with everywhere, the LibDem vote suffered over their enthusiasm to form a coalition with the Tories and the reversal of various policies people had been led to believe were cast-iron principles.
There has also been the same evolution in Orkney and Shetland that we have seen across Scotland in the run-up to and since the independence referendum.
Where folks were unconvinced about independence, there was little hostility to the idea and a lot of people have altered in their views to the constitutional question. In the EU referendum, Shetland, the most fisheries intensive part of these islands, with fish worth far more to the local economy even than oil or gas, voted to Remain.
At 56.5%, the majority was admittedly down from the Scottish average of 62% but still a clear win, it was clear even from my day’s visit during the EU referendum that there was a safe majority for Remain and little enthusiasm for Leave.
So things are changing, and this by-election has more going for it than most. Firstly, it has been brought about by the sudden resignation of the local MSP to leave politics altogether.
There’s a scunner factor as to why this election is happening, and a lack of enthusiasm for his prospective replacement. The SNP are putting up a good showing, with a bright, local and personable candidate in Tom Wills.
He is putting in a power of work, with the backing of a lot of local and visiting activists. The SNP students and Young Scots for Independence really do deserve campaign medals for this one. They have been in Shetland in numbers and have been working hard alongside the local organisation.
From my three days on Shetland, I learned that there’s a clear interest in the campaign, a sense that there is a real contest going on and that the vote is up for grabs.
There are 10 candidates altogether, with a number of independent councillors standing, which may well have a significant effect on the vote.
There’s also the elephant in the room, Brexit, and to stretch the metaphor even further, the clown riding on that elephant, our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
A number of folk on Shetland voted Leave, for reasons I respect. But even among fishing businesses and communities there was a good split, with a processing business we met being equally split between Leave and Remain. Even among those who voted Leave, there was a marked lack of enthusiasm for events since and worry about what leaving the EU might mean in practice.
“They’ve made promises they’re not keeping” summed it up nicely.
I asked one business about what contingency plans it had for a No Deal, or even leaving with a deal if there is a harder border and increased tariffs and paperwork. The response was stark: they’ll not muddle through, they’ll avoid the EU market altogether.
This will cut a significant (I’m preserving confidentiality here) margin from their sales, and mean a major market is, for the foreseeable future, closed. This is the real impact of Brexit in the real world and no amount of bluster from London will disguise it.
I said in our press statement that the best thing we can do for Scottish fishing is to stop Brexit, and I mean it.
There have been a lot of promises made and blank cheques signed that those advocating for Brexit have precisely no intention of cashing, and our fishing industries are being used as a pawn, again.
Well enough. There’s a mountain to climb for the SNP in Shetland, but there’s no denying things are changing.
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