THE SNP have warned the repercussions of a No-Deal Brexit revealed in a leaked government dossier – including shortages of food, medicines and fuel – lay bare the “sheer havoc Scotland and the UK are hurtling towards”.
Stephen Gethins spoke out as Cabinet contingency planning papers – codenamed Operation Yellowhammer – raised the likelihood of civil unrest, thousands of job losses, staff shortages in social care and a hard border in Ireland.
Published by the Sunday Times, the documents also warn the UK will be hit with a three-month “meltdown” at its ports, widespread strike action and potential clashes between UK and European fishing vessels amid concerns hundreds of ships will illegally sail into UK fishing waters.
A senior Whitehall source told the paper: “This is not Project Fear – this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case.”
According to the documents, petrol import tariffs would “inadvertently” lead to the closure of two oil refineries, while protests across the UK could “require significant amounts of police resources” in a No-Deal scenario. They also warn Gibraltar could face delays of up to four hours at the border with Spain for “at least a few months”.
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The UK is due to leave the EU at then end of October, but the Commons has repeatedly rejected the deal Theresa May negotiated with the EU with Tory Brexiteers MPs –who include May’s successor Boris Johnson – demanding the backstop mechanism in the withdrawal agreement be removed. However, the EU insists the backstop – the insurance policy to ensure an open border in Ireland – must remain.
With the two sides refusing to back down Johnson has left open the prospect of leaving without a deal, saying the UK will come out of the EU “do or die” on October 31.
Gethins, the SNP’s Europe and foreign affairs spokesman at Westminster, said: “The warnings about crashing out of the EU without a deal have been highlighted time and time again, but these government documents lay bare the sheer havoc Scotland and the UK are hurtling towards.
“The Tory Prime Minister is in a state of delusion and denial over the impact his extreme Brexit plans will have on essential supplies such as food, medicines and fuel.”
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He added: “The worrying reality is that these internal government papers are only setting out the best case scenario. It is clear that even in the face of disaster this Tory government simply plans to walk over the cliff-edge, dragging Scotland with it. Scotland must not pay the price of a reckless Tory Brexit imposed by a government that is gambling with people’s livelihoods.
“Scotland is looking on in horror at the Brexit Britain on offer from Westminster, and it is becoming clearer each day that the only way to properly protect our economic and social interests is through independence.”
UK Business minister Kwasi Kwarteng yesterday dismissed the dossier’s contents as “scaremongering” as the Government sought to play down the leak.
He told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “I think there is a lot of scaremongering around and a lot of people are playing into Project Fear and all the rest of it. We’ve got to prepare for No Deal. In fact the previous prime minister created DExEU and she said that the mandate of DExEU last year, last summer, was to prepare for No Deal.
“Now we’ve got a new Prime Minister who is very much focused on that and the scale and intensity of those preparations are increasing and we will be fully prepared to leave without a deal on October 31.”
Michael Gove, the Cabinet minister responsible for No-Deal planning, insisted Yellowhammer represented a “worst-case scenario”, while a Downing Street source claimed it had been leaked by a former minister.
He tweeted: “We don’t normally comment on leaks – but a few facts – Yellowhammer is a worst case scenario – v significant steps have been taken in the last 3 weeks to accelerate Brexit planning.”
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A Number 10 source said: “This document is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the funds were not available. It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders.
“Those obstructing preparation are no longer in Government, £2 billion of extra funding already made available and Whitehall has been stood up to actually do the work through the daily ministerial meetings. The entire posture of Government has changed.”
Tory ex-cabinet ministers Iain Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson claimed the leak was an example of the “establishment” plot to “sow fear in people’s minds”.
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