AS you might have expected, the incredible poll showing 52% support for Scottish independence has resulted in a storm of online debate.
Enter BBC presenter Andrew Neil, who had an interesting response to someone pointing out the obvious fact that the Tories blocking the democratic right of Scotland to choose its own future is wrong.
It all started with Nicola Sturgeon's reaction to the results of the poll. The First Minister tweeted: "Majority of people in Scotland now want #Indyref2 and would vote for independence, according to new poll in @HolyroodDaily – attempts by the Tories to block Scotland’s right to choose our own future are undemocratic and unsustainable."
Responding to Sturgeon, Economist columnist Jeremy Cliffe wrote: "Hard to fault this. SNP stormed to victory in 2016 Scottish election pledging 2nd referendum on independence if a) major shift in opinion or b) "significant and material change" to post-2014 circumstances. Both now fulfilled."
Hard to fault this. SNP stormed to victory in 2016 Scottish election pledging 2nd referendum on independence if a) major shift in opinion or b) "significant and material change" to post-2014 circumstances.
— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) August 5, 2019
Both now fulfilled. https://t.co/9u1uvAp6Lo
He's right, of course. Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against our will and even in the first poll after Boris Johnson's win in the Tory leadership contest there's been a Yes bounce.
Andrew Neil disagreed, though, and wasn't having any of it. The presenter tweeted: "Explain how a minority government ‘stormed’ to victory."
Explain how a minority government ‘stormed’ to victory. https://t.co/rFcnK8MWL9
— Andrew Neil (@afneil) August 5, 2019
So, let's look back at the results of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.
The SNP did lose six seats, falling to 63 MSPs and two short of a majority. That isn't quite the full picture, though.
The Holyrood system is set up in such a way as to make it extremely difficult to secure a majority, as we're sure Neil himself knows.
The SNP winning 63 seats to the Tories, who came in second, winning 31 sounds like a substantial lead to us – though not a "storm", perhaps.
However, the results of the constituency seats paint a very different picture. The SNP won 59 of those. No other party reached double figures. In fact, the Tories won only seven constituency seats. And this was the SNP winning a third successive term in government.
- SNP: 59 constituency seats, 4 regional seats
- Scottish Conservatives: 7 constituency seats, 24 regional seats
- Scottish Labour: 3 constituency seats, 21 regional seats
- Scottish Greens: 0 constituency seats, 6 regional seats
- Scottish LibDems: 4 constituency seats, 1 regional seat
And it's worth remembering that even with all the seats factored in, thanks to the six MSPs from the Scottish Greens, Holyrood has a pro-independence majority.
There is a triple-lock on Scotland's right to hold a second independence referendum. It was part of the party's manifesto promises in the 2016 Holyrood election and 2017 General Election. They won the most Scottish seats in both. The Scottish Parliament also voted in 2017 to request powers to hold a referendum.
Scotland must have its say.
Got a story for The Jouker? Let us know by emailing jouker@thenational.scot
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