ONE of Nicola Sturgeon’s key advisors on Europe has warned that a no-deal Brexit is more likely than ever before. Speaking to the Sunday National, University of Glasgow principal Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli said he previously thought there was only a one in five chance of the UK crashing out of the EU with no agreement, but the probability is “now much higher”.
Although he didn’t mention Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt by name, the academic, who chairs the First Minister’s Standing Council on Europe, accused the “most senior figures” of “playing a game of economic chicken with the livelihoods of millions of ordinary people”.
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His comments were backed up by Drew Scott, Professor of European Union Studies at Edinburgh University, who told the Sunday National he believed a no-deal Brexit was now the “most probable outcome”.
Johnson is still by some considerable distance the favourite to win the contest, Ladbrokes’ latest odds suggest he has an 84% chance of triumphing.
Earlier this week promised to take the UK out of the EU on the October 31 deadline, “do or die”.
In an interview with TalkRadio, he said he would put his Brexit plans “into action” on day one: “So we are getting ready to come out on October 31, come what may,” he said.
“Do or die. Come what may,” he added.
Last Friday in a hustings with members, he refused to rule out proroguing the House of Commons to stop MPs blocking a no-deal Brexit.
Though, he added, he was “certainly not attracted” to the idea.
Muscatelli told the Sunday National: “The probability of no-deal is now much higher, unless there’s the political will in Westminster to stop it. By even countenancing a no-deal outcome as a genuine option, we’re seeing the most senior figures mistaking obstinance for strength and political grandstanding for genuine leadership – playing a game of economic chicken with the livelihoods of millions of ordinary people.”
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He added: “No-deal is being sold as calling the EU’s bluff, and the prelude to a better offer from the EU on the key issue of the backstop. This will not materialise. Unfortunately some Brexiteers are also presenting WTO rules (GATT article 24) as some panacea to no-deal which it isn’t. They’re suggesting tariff-free trade will simply continue after we crash out.
“There is absolutely no prospect of the EU offering the UK a standstill interim tariff-free position under WTO/GATT article 24 in the event of no-deal. And whatever might transpire on tariffs, the non-tariff barriers, including border checks, following a no-deal event will cause trade flows to slow down markedly.”
Scott, who also sits on the First Minister’s standing council, agreed: “I think we now have a stronger likelihood than ever of a no-deal. It’s not just Boris Johnson, I feel that Jeremy Hunt has put his hat in the ring and said while he doesn’t want a no-deal in the final instance he would walk away from a deal if he doesn’t think it would meet the requirement of his political party.
“We’ve really ratcheted up this week. The bidding war between the two candidates has pushed the UK into a situation where a no-deal Brexit is now the most probable outcome”.
Scott said leaving with no deal would “certainly throw the Scottish economy into a recession within a year” and lead to rising prices, declining exports and foreign investment to Scotland down somewhere between a fifth and a quarter.
“This is a catastrophic play,” he said.
Dr Kirsty Hughes, director of Scottish Centre on European Relations was less convinced the UK was closer to leaving without a deal.
“I’ve always found it hard to believe that a no-deal Brexit would actually happen both in terms of the economic destruction and the political instability, and if Boris is PM he’s not going to want to be the shortest Prime Minister on record.
“Obviously you’ve still got a Westminster Parliament that is opposed to no-deal. On the other hand conversations there tend to be very UK-centric and don’t consider the EU side of it.
A spokesman for the First Minister said the prospects of no-deal were “rising by the day due to the irresponsible grandstanding of the Tory leadership contenders”.
“The fact that both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt say they are prepared to impose a no-deal on Scotland, with all the devastating consequences that threatens, shows how Westminster simply isn’t up to the job of protecting our national interests and why we would be better off with independence.
“The Scottish Government will do everything we can to help mitigate the impact in the event of no-deal – but it will simply not be possible to prevent all adverse effects, and it will be the Tories who are to blame and who will have to answer for it.”
Last Friday, Sturgeon and her Welsh counterpart, Mark Drakeford published a joint letter calling on the next Prime Minister to “change course and rule out” leaving the EU without a deal.
The two first ministers said they were becoming “increasingly alarmed” by “hard-line rhetoric about a no-deal Brexit”.
The joint statement was released ahead of a meeting of the British-Irish Council (BIC) in Manchester on Friday.
Drakeford and Sturgeon said: “We believe leaving the EU without a deal would be disastrous for the economies within these islands and for the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people.”
“The next prime minister must pull back from the brink of a no-deal Brexit and be honest with the public.
“If they continue on their current path, the UK looks increasingly likely to crash out of the EU in just four months’ time.”
Boris Johnson’s campaign team did not respond to a request for a comment.
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