The SNP have calculated that Ruth Davidson’s time as MSP for Edinburgh Central will be up at the next election.

The internal analysis shows that Davidson’s vote dropped from 29.1% in 2016 to 12.7% in 2019, meaning that the Scots Tory leader and Boris Johnson ally does not look likely to retain her seat.

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The predicted result was calculated by firstly taking the regional vote share for Edinburgh with the 2019 EU elections and applying the proportional change across the city to Edinburgh Central.

The SNP’s vote rose from 26.2% in 2016 to 29.8%.

The Edinburgh Central seat is set to be one of the most highly anticipated arenas of the upcoming elections.

An SNP spokesperson said: “This will make grim reading for Ruth Davidson who looks to be out on her ear at the next election.

“But little wonder. The Tory party she leads has been working against Scotland’s interests throughout the Brexit process.’’