IF you believe the bookmakers, and they are often right about these things, then Boris Johnson is the next prime minister of the UK.
The Old Etonian ex-mayor of London and former foreign secretary has been installed as odds-on favourite to be elected the next leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party which, in the crazy world of British politics, means you get to be prime minister.
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Tell you who won’t be going to Number 10 – Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson and her sidekick David Mundell, the British Cabinet’s man in Scotland.
Both were rated by Ladbrokes as 200-1 rank outsiders for the job, and to be fair, neither has indicated that they want it. But Mundell and Davidson’s tactics in the European elections show that neither have the modicum of political nous and talent required for the job.
Davidson is about to preside over an absolute shocker of a result for the Tories and she can’t blame anybody else – she approved the election leaflet that mentioned Nicola Sturgeon 12 times, herself only twice and Theresa May not at all, while only using pictures of two of her six candidates. We will not hold our breath waiting for the Unionist media to hold their darling to account, however.
No other Scottish-based MP or MSP is even quoted, so who will win the race to Number 10? What’s the odds on the contenders and should we be quoting bookmakers on such an important matter? Well they have more knowledge than most, and are reflecting the money that’s already been bet, even if they got it wrong about May succeeding Cameron, and Johnson will be hoping they get it right this time because he was their immediate favourite until Michael Gove backstabbed Johnson.
There will be a lot of numpties, frankly, who will put their hats in the ring, but according to the bookies, the contest is coming down to just six men and two women.
Dominic Raab is the second favourite in most lists but his odds of 6-1 put the former Brexit secretary well behind Johnson.
Environment Secretary Michael Gove is a Scot who represents an English constituency and he is a general third favourite on 10-1, while Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, whose intervention earlier this week made May’s position untenable, is priced around 12-1.
It was another intervention, this time by Andrea Leadsom, which showed that ministers were prepared to resign over May’s continuation in office. There was money yesterday for the former leader of the House of Commons, and she is generally around 16-1 for the job. After screwing up her leadership bid in 2016, she will not need us to tell her that she mustn’t do any daft interviews this time around.
In a fluctuating market, Leadsom is either just behind or just ahead of Rory Stewart who has already declared his intention to stand, but the fate of early birds in the race to be PM is usually to be the first to fall.
That brings us to the second female contender, Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, who is 20-1 or more to succeed. She would be the first female Royal Navy reservist in Number 10, but is that a qualification for high office?
Also quoted is Home Secretary Sajid Javid, but a One Nation-type Tory isn’t going to win this contest. The money says Boris – that indyref2 is getting closer.
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