THOUGH many of us might not have noticed it, there was another election under way yesterday.
Given that the UK was understandably preoccupied with the European ballot to elect MEPs, it’s perhaps not surprising that few were paying much attention to what was happening on the other side of the globe in the world’s biggest democracy.
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As the counting of hundreds of millions of votes began in India, all the signs indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was headed for a historic landslide victory.
If the whole issue of Britain’s place in Europe seems like a fairly charged atmosphere in which to conduct a ballot, spare a thought for those Indians confronted with Modi’s push on policies that some say increased religious tensions and undermined multiculturalism.
In the main, his 2019 campaign for re-election has been light on development and heavy on ethno-religious dog whistles. Not surprising, then, that this was a bitter political contest marred by accusations and insults, as well as an unprecedented increase in the use of social media. Overall it was widely seen as a referendum on Modi’s five-year rule.
Determined to win votes from the country’s Hindu majority, Modi adopted a nationalist pitch by projecting a tough stance against Pakistan, India’s Muslim-majority neighbour and regional rival.
That task was made all the easier after the suicide bombing by Pakistan-based militants of a paramilitary convoy in February in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 40 Indian soldiers. Should, as results suggest, Modi be re-elected, his win will be yet another in a string of victories by right-wing populists around the world.
Just as Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey purged his rivals to win a new term, so Victor Orban demonised immigrants to consolidate his expansion of power. In the Philippines, meanwhile, Rodrigo Duterte continues his pursuit of an imperial presidency.
For Modi it was the threat of Pakistan and India’s Muslim minority that provided him with the campaigning ammunition to secure his re-election.
Everywhere around the world it would appear that the age of the political big man is upon us. It’s hardly surprising, then, that many Indians have compared Modi to US President Donald Trump. From the use of Twitter to invoke hot-button issues spreading fear and division, to their respective in-your-face political style, the two men undoubtedly have much in common.
Perhaps what’s most worrying for India is that, given voters have decided to trust Modi with another five years in office, it’s unlikely he will continue to govern in half measures. As prime minister he will have to work a lot harder to address the country’s systemic problems and just how he goes about that will be of some concern among those who oppose him and have seen the dark side of a leader only too happy to stir up bitterness to further his political ambitions.
Modi himself is not a man given to introspection. In returning to power, it seems unlikely he will abandon the kind of rhetoric that has left so many Indian minorities fearful – in particular, Muslims.
As the writer James Crabtree observed in Foreign Policy magazine this week, many fear “that a victorious, emboldened Modi will seek far-reaching changes to India’s constitutional order”.
In that respect he would not be unlike other global big men, many of whom began with the same moderate technocratic platforms that Modi offered in 2014, only to grow more autocratic in power.
That said, India’s “divider in chief”, as Time magazine dubbed him, will have a daunting task at hand. There are roughly 900 million Indian voters, which not only makes the country the largest democracy in the world, it means that almost one in eight of the country’s adult population is able to vote.
READ MORE: David Pratt: The hate that won't fade: India and Pakistan square off in Kashmir
The country too has about 600 million people below the age of 25, more than any other country in the world, who are looking for quality education and secure employment. Millions of Indians also still remain mired in poverty, and reported cases of violence against women are on the increase.
If Modi’s election success reveals anything, it’s that despite the hopes of liberals around the world, right-wing populism remains in the ascendancy. Just these past days, defying conventional wisdom, the surprise win of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison further underscored that very point. Preoccupied as we are with all things Europe right now, we should not lose sight of the fact that Modi’s win is of tremendous significance.
Of the great democracies to fall to populism, India’s was the first. As Rana Ayyub wrote recently in the Washington Post, Modi’s “new language of hate” undermined India’s great democratic ideals and was a warning that if the world’s most populous democracy goes under, then its impact will be felt across the globe.
Back in 2014, Modi was elected to power by the greatest mandate the country had seen in 30 years. Now the citizens of India have once again voted for him and the BJP to continue to control the country’s destiny.
Populists come in two stripes. There are those who are of the people they represent, like Erdogan in Turkey, or Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, and those who are merely exploiting the passions of those they are not actually part of, like the Brexiteers and Trump.
Modi belongs very firmly to the first camp. As the journalist and novelist Aatish Taseer observed recently, Modi’s brand of populism has certainly served as a convincing critique of Indian society, of which there could be no better symbol than the Congress Party.
“India wins yet again,” tweeted Modi in true Trump style yesterday as the results began to flood in and rival Rahul Gandhi conceded defeat. While Modi’s 2014 win was partly a vote in anger against Gandhi’s corruption-tainted Congress party, this time it is an affirmation of a man born the son of a tea-seller and once again prime minister.
Long a bellwether for global right-wing populism, Modi’s victory is proof that far from being a spent political force, it continues its march across the world.
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