"IT’S time for independence,” Nicola Sturgeon declared, after a shock new poll showed Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is set to get more votes than the Conservatives and Labour combined in the European Parliament elections.
The Opinium poll put Farage’s party on track to get 34% of the votes. Labour were second with 21% of votes, and the Tories lag in fourth place with just 11%.
It looks increasingly likely – south of the Border at least – that the Brexit Party will clean up at the May 23 vote. Sturgeon took to Twitter on Saturday to react to the poll numbers, tweeting: “It’s time for independence, Scotland.”
When voters were asked who they’d pick at a General Election, 28% said Labour, while 22% opted for the Tories, just one point ahead of the Brexit Party on 21%. That was echoed in a ComRes poll, which said a snap General Election would see the Tories suffer the worst result in their history.
READ MORE: Scotland’s voice is ignored while that of Farage is amplified
Their survey for the Sunday Telegraph showed that Labour would take 27% and the Brexit Party would win 20%, ahead of the Conservatives on 19%. The LibDems would win 14%, followed by Change UK on 7% and the Greens 5%, with Ukip trailing on 2%. A forecast of how that would translate into seats in Westminster by Flavible Politics – shared online by Sturgeon – suggested the Tories would lose 206 seats, taking them down to 112. Labour would gain an extra 68, putting them on 330. The LibDems, meanwhile, would win 79, making them the third-biggest party in the Commons.
While the SNP would be bumped back down to fourth-largest party status, they’d have 18 more MPs than they currently do, giving them 53, only just ahead of the Brexit Party who would have 51.
Tories who would lose their seat to Farage’s candidates include Penny Mordaunt, the Defence Secretary, and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary.
The threat of electoral oblivion will heap pressure on May and the Tories.
If the polls prove accurate, Farage will be able to point to his support as proof that the UK must leave the EU immediately without a deal.
Yesterday, on the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme, he said he would demand his Brexit Party becomes part of the government negotiating team if it is successful.
It also increases the possibility of May being ousted by her party, who could, in a bid to stop haemorrhaging voters to Farage, replace her with a Brexiteer like Boris Johnson.
READ MORE: Theresa May could give details of resignation date next week
Last month the First Minister set out plans for a second independence referendum during the current parliamentary term, which ends in May 2021, if the UK leaves the EU.
She will introduce a framework bill to establish the rules for the vote, and will later request from the Prime Minister a Section 30 order, which would allow the temporary transfer of powers to hold it. The SNP leader has said she believes a vote could even be held next year.
There was an unexpected boost for Yes campaigners yesterday when the Sunday Mail, threw its weight behind the pro-independence Scottish Greens. Though, in an editorial, the paper made clear that their endorsement of Patrick Harvie’s party at the European elections, “doesn’t necessarily mean we’d follow them on the Yes side of a new independence referendum”.
Meanwhile, a Scottish Tory, a Scottish LibDem and a Scottish Labour MP have issued a joint call for constitutional reform in a bid to keep Scotland in the Union.
Writing in yesterday’s Scotland on Sunday, Stephen Kerr, Alistair Carmichael and Ian Murray said change was essential “to ensure that our United Kingdom prospers in the 21st century and the divisive ideology and grievance of nationalism is not allowed to rip apart our country”.
The three MPs call for a Secretary of State for the Union. This new role would “solve some of the problems the country will face”.
The men write: “One of the SNP’s arguments for independence is that the Scottish Government is not treated with respect by the UK Government. We reject that claim, but a Department for the Union would put it to bed, and would encourage a better working relationship between the two governments in the interests of all the people of Scotland.”
They also call for English politicians to “revolutionise their own overly centralised system of governance”.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel