TOMORROW tens of millions of South Africans will head to the polls for a general election that will have serious implications for its economy.
South Africa remains one of the world’s most unequal states and frustration is only growing over a perceived lack of progress in the past 25 years.
The incumbent party, the African National Congress (ANC), is almost certain to retain a majority but that will not guarantee the country’s President Cyril Ramaphosa power to introduce much-needed reform.
The state of Ramaphosa’s mandate will be determined by a decreasing vote share for the ANC, as well as a lack of unity within the party itself.
WHY IS THIS ELECTION IS DIFFERENT?
DESPITE 25 years passing since apartheid officially ended in the country, divisions remain – not only in society but also in their voting patterns.
White South Africans still show preference to the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA).
Meanwhile the ANC is still revered by many South Africans for the leading role it played in ending white-minority rule.
This election may see that change, as Ramaphosa has been garnering support from white moderates that believe he could weed out corruption in the country.
But promises fall on deaf ears for some traditional ANC supporters who doubt his commitment to black liberation.
WHY HAS SUPPORT FOR THE LEADING PARTY DROPPED?
RAMAPHOSA’S predecessor, Jacob Zuma, is a source of many controversies and before being forced out by the party in 2017 was facing a ninth parliamentary vote of no confidence.
During Zuma’s time in office he faced multiple claims of corruption and was officially charged for fraud and racketeering in April 2018.
Before he became president in 2009, South Africa was thought to be progressing towards equality and growth but that came to a halt during his presidency.
Support for Ramaphosa largely comes from promises to tackle the corruption that plagued the party and country during this time.
In the past year as president, Ramaphosa has already begun appointing reputable professionals to senior positions, but corruption is only one of the major issues the current president must tackle.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN ISSUES?
FACTORS that will determine the election come down to restoring investor confidence in the South African economy and boosting growth.
The country’s economy is lagging behind, as in the past decade economic growth has fallen below 2%, compared to the world’s real GDP growth which stands at nearly 4% after the Global Financial Crisis.
During Zuma’s presidency, policy uncertainty deterred much-needed foreign and local investment into the economy.
But one of the most inciting issues for the South African population remains the problem of land, as since the end of apartheid, it has mostly stayed in white hands.
The ANC government failed to meet its target of transferring 30% of commercial farmland to black hands by 2014, increasing discontent with the party.
Previous attempts to address the issue also crashed due to a failure to offer training and credit leading to the abandonment of 90% of black-owned farms.
Alongside land, the high debt levels of the state electricity firm Eskom which resulted in scheduled power cuts in the past year, also contributes to a lack of investor confidence in the economy.
With an unemployment rate of 27%, promises of economic growth are clearly key to ensure voter’s support.
All three of the main political parties have put job creation at the heart of their campaigns.
CAN RAMAPHOSA INTRODUCE PROMISED REFORMS?
WITH the many issues troubling the African nation, it is unclear whether Ramaphosa will be able to introduce reforms to turn it around.
Zuma’s tenure has not been forgotten and support for the ANC has fallen from 69% in 2004 to 62% in 2014.
To have substantial parliamentary power to introduce Ramaphosa’s planned reforms for economic growth, the ANC would need to win around 60% of the vote.
The party itself is not fully united behind him and in 2017 he only narrowly won leadership after facing opposition from a faction allied with Zuma.
These Zuma loyalists make up a significant part of the ANC’s list of parliamentary candidates and control some of the top posts posing a threat to Ramaphosa’s reformist agenda in parliament.
Without a clear reform mandate, the potential for boosting the South African economy will definitely be hindered.
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