IT feels like we’ve been on a rollercoaster these past few days. On Thursday morning, we woke up to a barrage of headlines generated by the Scotland in Union poll. “Only one in five Scots wants indyref by 2021”. And worse. “Support for independence now lower than in 2014.”
By lunchtime the picture was clearer – and less bleak. More than two-thirds of people, it turned out, said they wanted a referendum sometime in the next decade. Not brilliant – but it did completely incinerate the once-in-a-generation mantra of those Unionists who want to deny Scotland its right to self-determination for the next quarter century and more.
And then we discovered that the poll asked a manipulative and confusing question which framed independence in the “leave or remain” language of the Brexit referendum. And then it further emerged that the Unionist-commissioned poll showed the SNP on course to make 16 gains in the next Westminster General Election, bringing its contingent in the House of Commons up to 51 seats out of 59.
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The Unionist downhill slide steepened abruptly when a YouGov poll for The Times showed the Yes and No sides side running neck and neck with 49% expressing support for independence, even before any campaigning has begun. The same poll showed the Tories on just 10% support in the European elections – a staggering 30 points behind the SNP. If that wasn’t enough to lift the spirits of the independence movement, the poll further predicted a pro-independence majority of 19 seats in the Scottish Parliament, the biggest ever by far.
And then came a Sunday Times poll showing that independence would surge into a four-point lead in the event of a no-deal Brexit. All that in the week when Nicola Sturgeon has put the movement back on track by announcing a “framework bill” by the end of this year to pave the way for a new independence referendum. Events are now moving fast. Yet for some, they’re still not moving fast enough. They are becoming impatient and that’s understandable. But this is a time for cool heads. Some of the same people who are demanding that the First Minister bypass Westminster to hold a referendum spent most of last year insisting that there had to be a referendum in September. Had that advice been acted upon, I fear it would have ended in disaster and the whole Yes movement would right now be in tatters. Why do I say that? Because it was too early. Far from the surge we are starting to see, the polls back in September showed both the SNP and Greens losing support and the Unionists on course to win a clear majority at Holyrood. People have moved because they have seen for themselves the chaos, the incompetence, the ineptitude of Westminster. People learn more from their own experience than from being told what to think. They are still going through a process and they cannot be force-marched.
No-one knows for sure where Brexit is going. What we do know is that the crucial swathe of people who stand somewhere in the middle of the Yes/No divide fear a no-deal
Brexit more than they fear independence. But we may yet see a deal of some sorts which could temporarily shore up the pro-Union side. We do need to let things play out a bit longer before announcing a specific date.
By setting up the machinery for a second referendum by the end of this year, the Scottish Government is doing the right thing. We need to be ready and prepared to move at short notice. We don’t need an 18-month run-in to a referendum. In May 1997 the then Labour government legislated for a public vote on whether to establish a Scottish Parliament. Four months later, people put their cross on the ballot papers.
That brings us on to the issue of sovereignty. Some in the Yes movement have argued for a declaration of UDI. But this is not Ireland in 1918, when pro-independence parties won almost 70% of the vote in the UK General Election. Even the idea of a consultative vote is fraught with danger. Such a strategy could only be effective if we could guarantee a huge turnout and an outright majority of the population casting a Yes vote.
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Before the Catalan parliament called a referendum in defiance of the Spanish state, poll after poll throughout 2017 had shown public support for a referendum running at between 75-85%. Even the idea of an illegal referendum was supported by over 60%. Yet when it came to the crunch, the turnout was just 43% with millions of unionists boycotting the vote. In Scotland, we don’t yet have strong public support for an immediate independence referendum, even from those who are in favour of independence. That could change – but not as a result of the Scottish Government calling an unofficial referendum. It will change if pressure is put on Westminster to agree a Section 30 order, while broadening and deepening public support for independence.
Last year, Westminster agreed, unopposed, a motion from the SNP endorsing the Claim of Right and acknowledging Scottish sovereignty. The argument Unionists deploy to block it today is not based on legal principle but on the argument that people don’t want another referendum. The problem for our side is the argument is not yet clear-cut. The poll commissioned by Scotland in Union found that two-thirds want to see a referendum – but most still want to wait another five to 10 years.
And that’s understandable given the shambles and uncertainty surrounding Brexit right now. Yes, the Scottish Government was elected with a mandate to call a referendum before 2021. But since then, Brexit has complicated matters. It’s been double-edged: on one side bolstering potential support for independence but on the other side making people more cautious about plunging into another referendum. The sense I get from people outside the political activist bubble is: “Can’t we just get on with our lives for a wee while?”
That’s why Nicola Sturgeon’s tactics are sensible. Instead of hanging around passively waiting for Westminster to give its permission for a referendum she is pro-actively opening up a serious debate on the timing and forcing the UK Government to respond. And if by 2021 the UK is out of the EU and Westminster is still digging its heels in against a referendum, that projected 19-seat independence majority might well turn into a landslide.
I want to see a referendum within the next two years, as do most pro-independence activists.
But more than anything, we want to win, conclusively. I’m impatient not for a referendum, but for independence. If that’s before 2021, great. And if its shortly after, then that will do me.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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