IF there was a perfect example of Hugh MacDiarmid’s Caledonian antisyzygy it would be North Ayrshire and its reaction to the idea of Scottish independence.

At the 2014 referendum it produced one of the tightest results, with 48.99% voting in favour of independence while 51.01% voted No on a turn-out of 84.4%.

Such a close result reflects the polarity of the area where places like Kilwinning and Irvine are seen as bastions of Labour unionism with affluent Tory voters congregating in Largs and Arran, while the towns of the Garnock Valley and Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston are viewed as more open to the possibilities offered by independence – even though many families have voted Labour for a number of generations.

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With so many traditional Labour and Tory voters it is perhaps surprising that the No vote was not higher but there has been a strong SNP presence in North Ayrshire for years and the Yes activists were so organised and persuasive that some independent observers thought they might win the day.

It wasn’t to be and the question is now whether any of the 2014 No voters would vote Yes in another referendum. If these so-called “soft No’s” have changed their minds and the Yes voters are still standing strong then North Ayrshire could be a barometer for other parts of Scotland where the vote was close.

Independence activists in North Ayrshire have not carried out any polling recently but say they are getting positive feedback as they go around the doors.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s father Robin is branch organiser for Cunninghame South, and is confident there is “every likelihood” it would be a Yes vote next time.

“We are finding a lot of support for independence on the doors, even amongst some Labour voters,” he said. “No one you speak to thinks that Brexit is anything other than a mess so I’m sure it will be a factor with soft No voters and maybe just move them over.”

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Davina McTiernan, councillor for Stevenston, said that, anecdotally, there was a strong stream of new Yes voters in North Ayrshire, which was “very encouraging”.

“There are some people in North Ayrshire who would not vote for independence even if they were guaranteed their own personal utopian paradise – it’s sad, but we have to accept that reality,” she said. “I’m delighted, though, to have met many local people who have changed their view since voting against independence in 2014. They have seen Better Together promises broken, the Vow discarded and Scotland being dragged out of the European Union against our will.”

Kilwinning Yes activist Jonathan Poole-Smith said the atmosphere had definitely changed since 2014. “The swing has been fantastic,” he said. “I walk around with my ‘Still Yes’ badge on and many people smile at me and I have convinced two friends who have never voted to vote Yes,” he said.

Brexit was a factor in persuading them, he said, as they felt “let down” because Scotland had voted to Remain in the EU but was being ignored.

He added that he thought more people would vote Yes next time as more young people had become eligible to vote.

Willie Gibson, former SNP council leader and an activist within Cunninghame North where SNP husband-and-wife team Kenneth and Patrician Gibson are MSP and MP respectively, said the soundings were “very good”.

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“The general feeling is very positive. People are fed up with this nonsense down south and there is more of a swing to voting Yes this time. People are fed up with Brexit – so fed up they just want out of it.

“I think the soft No’s could swing. People who are Tory and voted No are always going to vote No but I think there are people in the Labour Party who could easily switch. There are a lot of sensible people who see the benefits of being in Europe.”

Jim Manclark, chair of Ayrshire Independence Movement, which has more than 500 members and runs regular street stalls, said he had spoken to more people who were No’s and were now going to vote Yes.

“We do get some people who come up and say they are British and want to stay that way but it is always the same people and they are getting fewer and fewer so to us that means people are listening and starting to change their minds,” he said.

“Brexit is a big factor but we had people before that who were changing their minds and as we get more information out more people are changing to Yes.

“We did The National give away and that went down really well and we put out Scotland the Brand leaflets too and that is helping as a lot of people down here are connected to farming but didn’t realise what was going on.

“Others are realising the UK is screwing them over, for want of a better term, and are getting fed up with the fact that their bills keep going up but their wages are not. People are seeing this and starting to put two and two together. It is not just in Ayrshire but all over.

“We take part in the Bridges for Independence events and the number of people flashing lights at us increases every week. I would say 80% of all cars were flashing and beeping when we were at the M8.

“We reckon support is at 60% now.”

Shaun Macaulay, councillor for Irvine West, said he was convinced North Ayrshire, along with the rest of Scotland, would vote Yes to independence next time.

“The conversations I’ve had with people of all ages highlight that so many across the political spectrum – particularly those in 2014 that liked the idea of independence but just weren’t quite there yet – are now looking at Westminster’s presiding over the Brexit process with absolute horror and I get the sense that most people now accept that Scotland is changing, it’s just a question of what type of change we want,” he said.

“The choice is to be part of an increasingly xenophobic Brexit Britain with endless Tory Governments or become a normal more democratic independent country fighting for equality and social justice. Faced with this choice there no doubt in my mind that people the length and breadth of North Ayrshire will vote Yes to Scottish independence.”