LABOUR would win a General Election and could form a UK Government if it secured support from another party – such as the SNP, an analysis has shown.
According to the study, published yesterday, the Tories would be swept from power with a loss of 59 seats in a crushing defeat in a new election.
Figures such as Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd and ex-Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith would be at “high risk” of losing their seats.
Experts said the prediction – revealed by a new poll of polls conducted by Electoral Calculus for the Sunday Telegraph – was down to the Government’s struggles over Brexit. The analysis is the latest survey which points to the collapse of the Tory vote across the UK, with other polls over the weekend also suggesting that support is plummeting.
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The poll of polls of more than 8500 people surveyed between April 2 and 11 found that Labour would win 296 seats if there were a snap election – compared with 259 for the Conservatives.
But despite such a win, Jeremy Corbyn would not automatically become PM and could only form a government if he secured sufficient support from other parties, such as the SNP.
The Electoral Calculus study suggests Zac Goldsmith, Justine Greening and Stephen Crabb also face losing their seats.
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Professor Sir John Curtice, the president of the British Polling Council, said Leave voters were being swayed to back Ukip or the new Brexit Party launched last week by the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage.
Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, he said: “Much of this drop reflects disappointment among Leave voters.”
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Theresa May is discovering why David Cameron really held the referendum. It wasn’t to placate his own Eurosceptic MPs, instead it was to stop Conservative voters defecting to pro-Brexit parties.
“That process seems to have restarted and the Conservatives are beginning to suffer.”
The UK was scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29 but the exit date has been delayed twice. Most recently until 31 October after MPs refused to support the withdrawal agreement presented by the Prime Minister.
The PM is now involved in talks with Labour in a bid to strike a compromise that could win the support of the Commons. If no agreement is reached MPs will vote on options for a way forward.
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A separate poll on Saturday showed that support for the Tories is down to its lowest level since 2013, with the party facing a bad night at next month’s European elections.
The YouGov survey put the Tories on 28%, down four points since the start of the month, while Labour was on 32%.
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