WISDOM of the crowd is the theory that the wider public often has the best sense of direction when it comes to trends and developments, in which case last week’s poll for Progress Scotland should be positive encouragement for supporters of Scottish independence.
By a significant margin a large majority believe that Scotland will become independent: 63% of respondents with an opinion think Scotland will become an independent country while 37% do not think it will happen.
Of course, just because people think that it will happen doesn’t mean it is inevitable, or will be easy to secure. However, I’m absolutely certain that if the same question was asked 20 years ago or even 10 years ago, one wouldn’t have that kind of positive response.
One factor may well be down to younger age cohorts who are more open to independence becoming an ever larger part of the electorate over recent times. In this poll of more than 2000 people by Survation, it is particularly striking that in the youngest age cohort from 16-24 a whopping 74% believe Scotland will become independent. Meanwhile, the only age cohort that doesn’t believe it will happen are amongst those who are 65 and older.
In passing it is also worth noting that a majority of Labour voters believe that Scotland will become independent, as do 37% of Liberal Democrats and 25% of Conservatives that were surveyed.
When it comes to the wisdom of the crowd in this poll it’s also striking that on the likelihood of another independence referendum 48% think its is likely in the next two years while 44% think it is unlikely, while significantly more think it is likely within the next 5 years; with 59% agreeing it is likely while only 32% think it is unlikely. On the question whether there should be another referendum on Scottish independence: 61% agreed and 39% disagreed.
READ MORE: It's a question of when, not if, for independence now
All of these questions and responses are hugely interesting and were from among all of those polled in the survey.
As interesting were the responses for people who are open-minded or undecided on Scottish independence. That is the key area of focus for Progress Scotland, to better understand the needs, interests, concerns and expectations of the 21% of respondents who fit into that group.
On the economy the standout result is that 77% of open-minded voters agree that they would vote for independence if they were convinced that it would be good for the Scottish economy. Only 5% disagreed!
In a related question 40% agreed that independence would be good for the Scottish economy in the long run while only 17% disagreed.
Meanwhile, more open-minded voters disagreed with the Tory attack line that “independence would be more damaging to the Scottish economy than Brexit” by 35% to 22%.
When it comes to the currency issue which has been the subjects of renewed interest with the publication of the report by the Scottish Growth Commission and will be debated at the forthcoming SNP Spring Conference, there were also some interesting findings.
Nearly half (47%) of open-minded voters favoured keeping the pound in the long term; 23% favoured keeping the pound in the short term and switching to a new Scottish currency in the longer term, when economic tests have been met; 14% were in favour of joining the EU single currency, the Euro; while 6% preferred switching to a Scottish currency in the short term.
On the question of our democracy and how we are best governed there were interesting results from open-minded voters, with 75% agreeing that control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish parliament/government, regardless of which political party is in power. Only 6% disagreed.
Similarly the question about whether decisions over whether Scotland’s relationship with the European Union should be made by the Scottish Parliament/Government had an equally overwhelming response: 75% agreed and only 9% disagreed.
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon tells EU citizens: 'We want you to stay'
That these results are of value to understand people’s views in Scotland was supported by widespread media coverage and analysis, but this is just the start.
We now need to dig into the results and will be conducting further research and focus groups. Our key target is to understand the 21% of the electorate which is open-minded about independence.
Thanks to everyone who has generously supported Progress Scotland by subscribing or donating. With your help we are able to do this important work.
If you would like more information about the poll results or would like to subscribe please visit: www.progressscotland.org
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