SCOTTISH scientists have sounded a warning about the future of the Amazon rainforest after research showed that President Trump’s trade sanctions on China have led to greater tree felling operations in Brazil.
China has huge demand for soya beans, and up until last year the Chinese government could depend on imports from the USA but the imposition of tariffs by Trump saw Chinese soya bean imports from the USA plunge to zero in November, 2018.
It was the first time since the trade war between the world’s two largest economies started that China, the world’s largest soya bean buyer, has imported no American supplies.
China bought in 5.07 million metric tons of soya beans from Brazil in November, up more than 80% from 2.76 million metric tons in the same month of 2017.
They turned to Brazil as it had a bumper crop last year and was able to make up the entire shortfall. But at what cost to the environment?
Now a team from Edinburgh University have joined with counterparts at the University Karlsruhe in Germany to warn of potentially devastating effects for the Amazon rainforest which contains half of all the rainforests in the world and is vital for the global environment.
According to their joint report in Nature magazine, pressure to fill China’s shortfall could see Brazil increase its land used for crop production by up to 39% – 13m hectares – according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.
Two decades of growth in the global soya bean market has already led to large-scale deforestation in Brazil’s rainforests.
The researchers add that political and legal controls that have prevented the expansion of soya bean production in the Amazon have recently been weakened. Deforestation increased by 29% between 2015 and 2016 and Brazil’s newly elected president has also removed the land rights of many indigenous people.
China’s Brazilian imports have increased by 2000% in the past two decades. The researchers say it is highly likely that China’s appetite for livestock feed and bioenergy will drive further increases.
By late 2018, 75% of China’s soya-bean imports came from Brazil, and with little prospect of China reducing its intake of soya beans, the academic study suggests a range of measures to ensure no further loss of the Amazon rainforest.
The researchers say China and the US should acknowledge their roles in driving tropical deforestation and remove trade tariffs on the crop. China could also seek a wider range of suppliers, including Argentina and Europe. They also urge Brazil to improve its environmental protection schemes by financially rewarding developers and businesses for not clearing forests.
Dr Peter Alexander of the School of Geosciences at Edinburgh said: “Governments, producers, regulators and consumers must act now. If they don’t, the Amazon rainforest could become the greatest casualty of the US–China trade war.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here