We shouldn't worry that the polls aren't yet showing a big surge for Scottish independence

The Tory Party heard it first – not the Commons nor the country.

The announcement and subsequent hysterical media reaction, conveniently overshadowed the historic democratic process taking place in the Commons and prompted crocodile tears over the PM’s “ultimate sacrifice” from politicians who have no time for her at all.

Above all, with her coded deal to the tiny far-right groups holding Britain to ransom – the ERG and DUP – Theresa May managed to grab the limelight with her “unequivocal promise” to quit as Tory leader and Prime Minister – when her promise is actually anything but unconditional.

If her deal isn’t passed, if it isn’t accepted by the Speaker for debate since it hasn’t changed one iota, then it’s game off. Offer over. Nanny stays. For as long as she likes.

And even if she goes, there’s nothing much to rejoice about.

If she goes, Remain voters and Scots in particular face the likelihood of a hard Brexit-supporting replacement, steering the country (without an election) ever closer to the “sell yer granny,” bargain basement, regulation-free zone that was only a wet dream for the hard-right, till David Cameron’s triumph in the independence referendum prompted his big Brexit referendum mistake. Consider too, that the field of candidates queuing up to become Tory leader and this PM is dominated by people so loyal, so steadfast, so dependable, so principled and so unbiddable that they dropped their objections to a “dreadful deal” in an instant once the prospect of becoming Prime Minister beckoned.

Furthermore, after the dust has settled from the massive distraction of Theresa May’s possible departure stunt, the Brexit deadlock will probably not have been broken.

By the time you read this, it’ll be clear if any of the seven alternative Brexit scenarios cooked up by MPs actually passed last night’s series of indicative votes. Even if one or two did, they are just advisory votes and the Government’s already said it won’t be bound by them. So the process may start again on Monday when a shortlist of the most popular options is voted on again by MPs.

Yes, any modern parliament would simply have used a transferable vote system yesterday – so that MPs wouldn’t have to guess if their third option actually has a better chance of success than their favourite. But this is the Mother of Parliaments, don’t you know. Nothing so fair, efficient, fast and transparent ever happens in the developed world’s most archaic elected chamber.

But before round two on Monday, Theresa May might have massaged her dead-as-a-dodo deal back into life, and managed to get it slipped back into proceedings for a third meaningful vote on Friday. Unwise as it is to mix avian metaphors, Monty Python’s Parrot sketch comes to mind almost unbidden. If the Prime Minister hadn’t nailed her deal to the perch it’d be pushing up the daisies.

But as well as revealing the Tories in their worst possible light, and forcing voters to watch as they treat our future relationship with Europe as a kind of Christmas come-early-assortment box, yesterday also demonstrated the near total disarray of UK Labour.

Folk were pleasantly surprised when news broke at lunchtime that Labour would whip (force) their MPs to back the amendment calling for a confirmatory ballot – ie the People’s Vote. But it wouldn’t be Labour without a wee democracy-denying sting in the tail – according to Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman the party will only support another referendum in the event of a “damaging Tory Brexit”. If Labour takes power, the party will renegotiate such a good Brexit deal, there won’t be any need to bother the people.

Right.

After that, Labour seemed to U-turn on an amendment from Joanna Cherry, below, crafted with cross-party backing to be sufficiently succinct to please everyone, which provided a revoke backstop so that from now until two days from the eventual Brexit date – whenever that may be -- no deal stops being the destructive default. But no. Jeremy Corbyn obviously prefers facing the wrath of his Remain-voting membership to the fury of Leave voters in former Labour heartlands. So Labour whipped their MPs to abstain.

Even though Labour’s position is that no deal is unacceptable, the party recommended that its MPs should abstain.

Why not back the Revoke

Article 50 amendment – unless it is that hard for Labour to acknowledge the political leadership and brilliant initiative taken by SNP, Greens and two Labour MEPs? If Scottish Labour MPs follow these short-sighted, mean-spirited instructions and fail to vote for the revoke option, they will be toast.

If the last two sorry years have been a demonstration of life with the Tories in charge, yesterday was a wee glimpse of what’s likely to happen if it’s ever Labour’s turn again. The same. Obviously, some Brexit-related policies will be a wee bit different.

But the unwillingness to find common cause, the arrogance about not needing to seek public backing for any of their deals – the process of politics under Labour will be exactly the same as life under the Tories.

My way or the highway.

Once they’ve worked out what their way actually is.

Wednesday will be remembered as the day the British party system finally stood revealed as a total shambles. Contradiction followed contradiction amongst senior members of both main political parties.

At PMQs Theresa May said; “we’re working constructively across the house to build consensus”. An hour later, the Tory Leader of the House Andrea Leadsom announced that the “constructive” government would be voting against even having indicative votes today. Nice.

Labour started the day all over the place when shadow international trade secretary Barry Gardiner suggested Labour would be unable to support a confirmatory referendum because it would mean accepting “what we have always said is a very bad deal”. Whit? He then claimed Labour was not “a Remain Party now” and when asked to choose between no deal and the revoke option, said: “That’s a tough choice.”

It’s as if British governance – used to nothing more taxing then the egg and spoon race at a school sports day – has suddenly been plunged into the demanding environment of a political Olympics – and found sorely wanting. The strength isn’t there, the training hasn’t been put in, there’s been no team building or loyalty.

Yessers worry that despite all this, we haven’t persuaded half the population of Scotland they would be better off in an independent country. I know, it does beggar belief that anyone would knowingly side with the catastrophists of the Commons over the statesperson-like eloquence of Alyn Smith, with his powerful “leave the lights on” message to the European Parliament, or the natural, clear-headed deal-maker Joanna Cherry whose rare ability to charm and persuade Unionist MPs into her Revoke Article 50 camp bodes well for negotiations on Scotland’s future with the same MPs before long.

Here in Scotland, our own parliament at Holyrood had none of the same equivocation experienced at Westminster and Labour MSPs joined the Greens and SNP in a symbolic motion calling for Article 50 to be revoked as a last resort.

Ours is a parliament with purpose not prima donnas when push comes to shove.

So I’m not too worried about the polls. Currently there is talk but still no strategy or a campaign for indyref2 -- no moment of decision has arrived, so there’s no need for the undecided to do what they least want to do. Decide. It’ll take more than an opinion pollster’s question to coax hesitant folk to out themselves. But that moment is coming, and Theresa May’s possible swan song doesn’t alter that fact one wee bit.