MPs will be offered “indicative” votes on different Brexit options in a move to unlock the impasse.
These are the likely choices:
1. Theresa May’s deal
2. Revoke Article 50
3. Second Brexit referendum
4. PM’s deal with customs union
5. PM’s deal with customs union and single market membership
6. Canada-style free trade agreement
7. No-deal Brexit
MPs could be asked to vote on every option separately, with the one receiving the most votes the winner. But they could also be voted on under an alternative voting system, which would see MPs rank the options in order of preference. The least popular choices would be eliminated, round by round, and votes redistributed until one ended up with the most support.
Should MPs vote on each option separately, in our judgement it is likely the SNP would vote in the following way:
1. May’s deal: No
2. Revoke Article 50: Yes
3. Second EU referendum: Yes
4. PM deal with customs union: No
5. PM deal with customs union and single market membership: Probably Yes
6. Canada-style Free Trade Agreement: No
7. No deal Brexit: Definitely No
If MPs vote on the basis of ranked preference, the SNP MPs are likely to rank – from best to worst
1. Revoke article 50
2. Second EU referendum
3. PM deal with customs union and single market membership
4. PM deal with customs union
5. PM deal
6. Free Trade Agreement
7. No deal Brexit
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