THE inadequate preparations by government are driving businesses the length and breadth of the country to distraction. As we write, there are many more unanswered questions than answered ones.
It is therefore impossible to give a completely accurate view on what a no-deal Brexit will look like in practice.
But that is not a reason for any of us to bury our heads in the sand. Our reports on Brexit and Scottish business from October 2017 and February 2018, have been sadly prescient in a number of ways, and not least the extent of uncertainty and complexity that cannot be avoided. But some of the complications are becoming clearer.
READ MORE: Scotland's top economist warns of major no-deal Brexit threat
Consider the implications for a holiday in the EU, a long weekend in a European capital, travel on business, or generally the ease with which we can freely move around the continent. In the event of a no deal it is not merely the ability to travel that could potentially be affected.
What about travel insurance? Health insurance? Driving in the EU? Passport requirements?
The good news is that the EU would not immediately ground intra-EU flights operated by British airlines after 29 March. However, this is not a long-term guarantee. A number of the most popular airlines, such as Easy Jet, Ryanair and British Airways will fall foul of ownership requirements, and will have to ensure that they are at least 51% owned and controlled within the EU (that is, no longer including UK shareholders). They won’t have much more than a year to sort this out or face the possibility of being grounded.
Even if you avoid air travel and take your car on holiday, you would not be immune from changes.
As things stand, you will need to obtain an International Driving Permit (IDP) to drive in the EU. There are different types of IDP depending on which EU countries you intend driving in.
Don’t forget too to check your car number plate. GB is the distinguishing sign to display on UK-registered vehicles when driving outside of the UK, including in the EU and the EEA. In the event of a no deal, you may need a GB sticker even if your vehicle has a Euro-plate (a number plate displaying both the EU flag and a GB sign).
Similarly, if the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without a deal, you will need to ensure you carry a physical Green Card in addition to car insurance while driving your vehicle in the EU and also in Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein, Andorra, Serbia and Switzerland.
Green Cards will need to be arranged (and possibly a fee paid) via your insurer well in advance of travel.
Also, since European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) will no longer apply, you will need to ensure you have appropriate medical cover as part of your travel insurance.
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon warns of ‘severe’ impact of a no-deal Brexit
And finally, the UK Government has already issued guidance as to when a new passport will be required.
If we look at transport for business, in recent weeks there have been stooshies in Westminster about the UK Government, very late in the day, recognising there are potential bottle necks going to be created at ports in the event of a no deal.
We have known about this, however, for a long time.
As we reported back in October 2017: “The port of Dover processes 10,000 lorries each day at approximately 2 minutes per vehicle. Should new requirements come into force when the UK leaves the customs union that sees an increase in administration and clearance by only 2 minutes per vehicle, it is estimated this will create 17 miles of queues, creating major disruption.”
Why it has taken so long for government to wake up is quite extraordinary.
The more divergence there is from the EU, the more increasing customs controls become more likely, with considerable logistical consequences.
It is difficult to find any major area of life not affected by a no-deal event.
CEO of Ipsen, a global pharmaceutical company, has just warned that the uncertainty around Brexit and the relocation of the European Medicines Agency from London to Amsterdam has meant Britain has already slipped down the list of priorities when it comes to filing for approval for new drugs.
Dr Philippa Whitford MP has been beavering away at Westminster and doing a fine job exposing some of the very practical difficulties a no deal will pose for medicine. Questioning a floundering Health Secretary in the Commons on January 15, she exploded the myth that drug supply isn’t a problem because of our ability to stockpile.
And hasn’t Seaborne Freight exposed how preparations for a no deal that allows goods to flow in and out of the UK has been so very badly managed? Thanks to Joanna Cherry MP in particular, ministers were exposed as completely failing to understand the practical and legal consequences of their actions in awarding a contract to Seaborne Freight, hence the panicked withdrawal of the contract. We are still underprepared and therefore cannot guarantee the effective movement of goods.
This is no esoteric issue. A no-deal Brexit may be felt in the shelves of supermarkets, in hospitals and doctor surgeries, in travel on vacation, and indeed in most areas of day-to-day life.
Roger Mullin and Michelle Thomson are directors of Momentous Change Ltd
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