IT'S going to be a busy day in Westminster.
At the moment it looks like Theresa May has the numbers to win the no-confidence vote.
Ladbrokes have made her odds on favourite to succeed. But if we know anything from the last few years, it’s that our politics is in a constant state of omnibourach.
Anything can happen, and only a fool would offer a confident prediction.
At 12pm we’ll have Prime Minister’s Questions. May will want to be on top form here. She’ll almost certainly get huge support and huge cheers from her benches, but a strong performance from Jeremy Corbyn and Ian Blackford could convince some wavering backbenchers that she’s not up to the job.
Later in the afternoon she’ll attend a special meeting of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs to try and convince them to stick with her.
The confidence vote will take place between 6pm and 8pm in a House of Commons committee room.
The result is expected at 9pm.
MPs will simply be asked if they still have confidence in the Prime Minister.
It’s a secret ballot so even ministers and backbenchers who claim to support May can, if they wish, vote against her.
The Prime Minister needs to win the support of at least 158 MPs.
Though she’ll be hoping for a decisive win, May has insisted she will carry on even if she only secures a majority of one. The party may have other ideas.
However, if May loses then she’ll have to tender her resignation and the party will move on to a full blown leadership contest.
It’ll be open to all Tory MPs bar May. Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Dominic Raab and David Davis are all said to be keen.
The Brexiteer ERG, in a bid not split the vote, are reportedly planning a hustings to try and find one Leave backing MP to run.
Tory MPs will then vote to whittle down the number of candidates over a matter of days into two.
Those two then face the party’s membership in a postal vote.
Technically there is enough time before Christmas for MPs to come up with a shortlist of two, but the ballot of members will have to take place over the holidays, meaning it could be mid-January before we know the winner.
The party membership is far more Brexity than the parliamentary party, so whichever leaver gets on the ballot will be the favourite.
During this time May would remain as Prime Minister, which, in turn, could possibly intensify calls on Labour to push for a motion of no-confidence in the government.
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