THERESA May’s Government is staring at the prospect of peak Brexit chaos as we approach Tuesday’s meaningful vote in the House of Commons.
You would need the combined detective skills of Sherlock Holmes and Hercule Poirot to find any political commentator who believes the Prime Minister’s deal will win the day.
Whatever else happens in the wake of the deal’s defeat it is certain that it will not survive in anything like its present form to go to another Commons vote. Major changes will have to be made for it to have even a remote possibility of winning support from some of those who are expected to vote against it this week.
The worst-case scenario for the Prime Minister is that a defeat forces her out of office, although that is far from certain (and in any case she may welcome the opportunity to wash her hands of the whole catastrophe).
But she has already signalled to her MPs that Tuesday’s vote is not the end of the story for some sort of deal. Indeed some may suspect she has given her troops the chance to register their disapproval in the certain knowledge that a revised deal will be put to another Commons vote, either before Christmas or very soon after it.
If that too fails the likelihood is that we leave Europe without a deal, although we may yet see a People’s Vote or a complete withdrawal of Brexit.
It’s that last scenario that leads us to believe that Tory recalcitrants may yet see a revised Brexit deal as better than no Brexit at all and be persuaded to vote for it, albeit with their noses held firmly between their fingers.
Time for a change to Question Time
THERE is no doubt that the SNP have a point in complaining at the number of times it has been invited to have a representative on the Question Time panel.
The figures speak for themselves ... six times in the past year compared with 22 times for the LibDems when they were the third largest party at Westminster.
We could argue forever about the reason for the gap but let’s just suggest that the BBC closes it as soon as possible.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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