THEY are a culinary delicacy so prized that some examples can change hands for prices more than twice the value of pure silver. But truffles could soon be a thing of the past, according to research by a Scottish university.
Dr Paul Thomas, from the Faculty of Natural Sciences at Stirling University, led the research, which is the first study to consider the future threat of climate change on European truffle production.
He claimed yesterday that the lucrative truffle industry is set to disappear within a generation.
The study, A Risk Assessment of Europe’s Black Truffle Sector under Predicted Climate Change, is published in Science of the Total Environment. Thomas reports that a warmer and drier climate will be responsible for a decline that will have a “huge economic, ecological and social impact” and could be accelerated by other factors, such as heatwave events, forest fires, pests and diseases.
With the truffle species Tuber melanosporum trading at more than £1000 per kilogramme, the industry is worth hundreds of millions of pounds.
Estimates have suggested the figure could reach as much as £4.5 billion over the next 10 to 20 years, but the new study suggests a bleaker future for the sector.
Thomas said: “Our new study predicts that, under the most likely climate change scenario, European truffle production will decline by between 78% and 100% between 2071 and 2100.
“However, the decline may well occur in advance of this date, when other climate change factors are taken into account, such as heatwaves, forest fires, drought events, pests and disease.
"We risk losing an industry worth hundreds of millions of pounds to the economy. However, the socio-economic impact of the predicted decline could be substantially larger as truffle harvesting and relatedactivities form a key component oflocal history and cultural activity.”
Thomas, working with Professor Ulf Büntgen at the University of Cambridge, studied continuous records spanning 36 years of Mediterranean truffle yield in France, Spain andItaly. The team correlated the data with local weather conditions to assess the impact of climate on production – and combined the results with state-of-the-art climate model projections to predict the likely impact of climate change on truffle yields.”
His research concentrated on the black truffle, the second-most commercially valuable species, much loved by French chefs in particular.
Thomas added: “This is a wake-up call on the impacts of climate change in the not-too-distant future. These findings indicate that conservational initiatives are required to afford some protection to this important and iconic species.
“Potential action could include the expansion of truffle plantations into new territories of a more favourable future climate.
“Management strategies should further include mulching materials and cultivation practices to mitigate soil temperature fluctuations and conserve soil moisture.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here