LAST week’s whirlwind of events which followed Theresa May’s success (albeit temporary) of uniting her Cabinet around her Brexit deal suggests we are reaching a pivotal moment on the road to Brexit.
It would be a fool who would predict with any confidence what might happen in the next 10 minutes, never mind in the days ahead.
There are any number of scenarios, although the most likely remain: Theresa May’s ousting or resignation; a possible general election; a People’s Vote, which results in the scrapping of Brexit altogether (or doesn’t); Theresa May somehow survives and somehow wins the backing of Parliament for her current deal, or something which looks very like it.
It’s this last scenario which presents Scotland with the biggest opportunity, or challenge, depending on your attitude to another independence referendum.
The Yes movement is united in wanting another independence referendum, but it is becoming more obvious by the week that there is a growing degree of disagreement about the timing.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has so far done a remarkable job in keeping a majority support for a relatively cautious approach. She has argued articulately that clarity is needed around what the Brexit deal will look like.
If May’s deal survives we will have that clarity and it will not look good. It is a bad deal for all parts of the UK and a bad deal for Scotland. It ignores all the suggestions made by a Scottish Government bending over backwards to be reasonable.
And it rules out any deal for Scotland keeping closer ties to Europe in the way that May accepts is possible for Northern Ireland.
We don’t know yet, of course, whether the deal will survive in anything like its present form. A sensible person might think the odds are very much against it. Nonetheless it’s a possibility which merits some planning.
We’re lucky we have a possible escape from this nightmare through independence. Is this the scenario in which we would seek to use it?
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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