BREXIT is pushing voters in Scotland towards backing independence, according to a major opinion poll published last night.
The survey found 38% of over-18s north of the Border were “more likely” to support the prospect compared to 25% who said they were “less likely” to back it. Some 31% said it made no difference to their view, while 6% said they did not know.
It also revealed that across the UK around half of voters – 46% – were unconcerned about Scotland deciding to leave the UK while 42% were not concerned if Northern Ireland joined the Republic.
While most voters across the UK thought Brexit would be bad for the economy, concerns were particularly acute in Scotland.
Some 54% of Scots thought leaving the EU would have a negative impact, compared to 44% in the UK as whole.
And just 21% of voters north of the Border believed quitting the bloc would have a positive effect n the economy, compared to 31% in the UK.
The poll was carried out by Survation, which interviewed 20,000 people online across every constituency in the UK between October 20 and November 2, making it the biggest independent survey of its kind on Brexit. The figures include a weighted total of 1,622 respondents in Scotland.
It was commissioned by Channel 4 ahead of a live debate on Brexit last night. But the programme, titled Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks, provoked controversy for failing to include a representative from the SNP, despite Labour and Tory politicians taking part.
Using the data collected in survey polling, analysts said they estimated the UK would now vote to remain in the EU by a majority of 54% to 46%. They also concluded 105 local authorities in the UK that saw a majority vote Leave in 2016 would now vote Remain.
The pollsters asked voters whether they thought former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and former Ukip leader Nigel Farage would secure a better deal with the EU than Theresa May. In Scotland Johnson commanded the lowest levels of confidence, with just 13% believing he would get a better deal – two points behind Farage.
Corbyn fared better, with 23% believing he would get a better deal than May, but 40% thought he would get a worse one.
However, across the UK the Labour leader failed to impress, with 46% believing he would do worse than the PM in the negotiations and only 24% thinking he would do better.
Voters were also quizzed on whether they thought immigration had had a positive effect on life in Britain, with 41% in the UK as a whole saying it had and 45% of Scots saying so.
The poll also revealed that 49% of voters in Scotland support a referendum with the choice of accepting Theresa May’s Brexit deal or remaining in the EU.
Nicola Sturgeon has backed a second EU referendum, with her party supporting the proposition at its conference last month.
However, since then SNP MP Pete Wishart and SNP MSP and former minister Alex Neil have raised concerns it could create a further obstacle to independence.
Commenting on the poll, Catherine Stihler, Labour MEP for Scotland and a pro-EU advocate, said: “This opinion poll confirms there is huge support for a people’s vote in Scotland. There are many different options for the ballot paper, but it’s significant that 49% of Scots support a referendum which gives voters the choice of remaining in the EU.
“Whatever Theresa May puts before her Cabinet, and whatever deal is eventually put to the Commons, there is no such thing as a good Brexit. It will decimate jobs and harm our economy.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article