SPEAKING at the launch of her new book this weekend, Ruth Davidson all but signalled her intention to abandon the political fray after the next Holyrood election.
Her ambition, she says, is to become the next First Minister of Scotland. My ambition is to become an astronaut, but I know that’s never going to happen. And I’m pretty sure that Ruth knows that she has as much chance of flying to the moon as winning a Tory majority in the Scottish Parliament. And when her bid for Bute House fails on May 6, 2021, she will “let everything else take care of itself after that”, she told the gathering in St Andrews.
And who could blame her for walking away? The UK state that she defended so passionately has become the laughing stock of Europe, its leaders looking and sounding like characters from a script where Monty Python and Dad’s Army have been rolled into one. These days, it must be truly embarrassing to be a Tory in Scotland. The thundering indignation of Theresa May and her ministers at the failure of the European Union to do as it’s told looks and sounds like a deluded throwback to the days of British colonial supremacy. And that’s before we even start on the hardcore Brexiteers of Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Davis with their bellicose British nationalism bordering on fascism.
The Little Englanders are now well and truly in charge of the Tory party – and as for those who voted them back into power in 2017, clichés from my childhood leap to mind, not least of which is, “You’ve made your bed, now you can lie in it.”
Some believed what they wanted to believe – that a Tory Brexit would make Britain great. Others were duped by blatant lies. That the UK would take the EU leaders to the cleaners and walk away with mountains of gold and silver, while trade flourished and the EU was left licking its wounds.
The reality was always going to be a different story entirely. When Theresa May assured us that she was on the verge of getting the UK the best of all possible worlds, she was in denial about the facts. In her storybook fantasy, Britain could strike a fabulous trade deal while locking its doors to EU migrants.
But the EU leaders were never going to allow that to happen. The last thing they need is for the Prime Minister to strut around in triumph proclaiming a glorious victory, whipping up a frenzy of British nationalism. Such an outcome would guarantee to fan the flames of the far-right forest fires now sweeping the continent. With the next elections for the European Parliament taking place just three months after Brexit, racist parties across Europe would run amok if the UK could provide proof that racism delivers national prosperity. The EU itself would then start to unravel amid a right-wing upsurge. The consequences would be terrifying.
So where now for Scotland and the Scottish Government? There are still surely many unforeseen twists and turns on the road ahead. Some have suggested that Theresa May might call a snap General Election. Unlikely perhaps – and some of her ministers have emphatically ruled that out. But stranger things have happened. For Theresa May, there might be some attraction in a back-me-or-sack-me initiative. If she wins she has a new mandate, at least in England, to lead a hard Brexit. And if she loses, she hands over the poison chalice to Jeremy Corbyn. In Scotland, I suspect the SNP would win hands down this time round. And an early independence referendum could be back on track.
Alternatively, the idea of a “people’s vote” to approve or reject the final Brexit package could get a huge boost if the Labour conference backs it tomorrow. That would put the SNP on the spot.
I know there is not a great appetite within the Yes movement for a rerun of the Brexit referendum. Many, understandably, have the attitude of “hell mend you” (to retrieve another cliché from childhood). They hope the UK will be in such a shambles come March, cast adrift in the Atlantic, that a referendum on independence, if delivered, is sure to be a landslide.
But sometimes you have to play with the cards you’re dealt with. If halting Brexit in its tracks becomes a real possibility, many Yes and potential Yes supporters will look to the SNP to help make that happen. And we know from history how parliamentary votes, or abstentions, can be used by opponents to muddy the waters. That’s why I believe Nicola Sturgeon is right to say she will not stand in the way of a second referendum.
She does make the legitimate point that if the result goes the same way as that of 2016, Scotland would be back at square one. That is true up to a point. But a second pro-Brexit vote driven through by England would make the case for independence more crystal clear than ever. Her answer to that should be a snap independence referendum.
And if Brexit was halted or delayed by a people’s referendum? That would bring down the UK Government and trigger a General Election. The gains made by Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Tory party would almost certainly be wiped out and a commanding SNP majority could have an even stronger mandate to move to a second independence referendum.
I’ve never believed that independence is dependent on Brexit. The sheer chaos that has surrounded Westminster over this past year has left the prestige of the Union in tatters. It demonstrates that whatever happens with the EU, the United Kingdom is already broken, and that Scotland’s future cannot be held in thrall by London.
The road ahead will be strewn with obstacles for sure, but the case for full self-government is becoming ever more clear by the day.
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