Corbyn as PM could plunge UK into deeper black hole

Of course, Corbyn and co (as well as the Labour rank and file) would prefer a General Election, because they think they can win one. And in practical terms, it is difficult to see how a second EU referendum can happen unless Theresa May is kicked out of Downing Street.

Of course, she may go before any election, courtesy of a coup by her backbenchers. Or she may pre-empt them by calling an election herself. Indeed, the Sunday papers were full of speculation that May is already preparing for a November poll.

It makes political sense for Labour to cover the cracks in its own EU position with support for a fresh referendum – just as it did in 1974, for those of you with a dinosaur memory. The real trouble will then start if Corbyn enters Downing Street come Christmas. Does he delay a second referendum until he re-negotiates with Brussels? And what will Labour’s negotiating position be? Will Corbyn reverse ferret back to full UK membership, despite his lifelong aversion to the EU? Will he seek some sort of Norwegian halfway house in an attempt to satisfy both northern working class Brexiteers and the ranks of trades union Remainers? Or will the UK find itself back in a political black hole, only deeper?

The wild card here is that a Corbynista election victory has other dramatic implications for the British state and economy. Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, the brains of the outfit, have been preparing a shock for the City oligarchy, Oxbridge elite and foreign multinational corporations that really run the UK. Corbyn and McDonnell, backed by the populist Momentum movement in England, have been honing the sort of socialist, interventionist political programme we haven’t had a sniff of since Tony Benn was in his heyday in the early 1980s.

On Saturday, Corbyn began the warm-up to Labour’s Liverpool conference by denouncing Britain’s “reckless corporate culture” and promising to revive the call for mandatory worker representation on company boards: “Workers are Britain’s real wealth creators. They deserve a seat at the table.” Previously, McDonnell has promised that firms will have to convert a proportion of each year’s profits into new shares, to be pooled and owned by the company’s employees. Which means that all companies will eventually be owned by their workers. At least those not nationalised immediately by an incoming Corbynista administration, which include rail, energy and English water companies.

A Corbyn government would have to get this radical programme through Parliament – no mean feat given a lot of Labour MPs are still closet Blairites. So, on Saturday, Labour’s ruling national executive agreed a rule change that makes it easier to deselect sitting MPs. The new system requires only a third of local branches or affiliated unions to demand a full constituency reselection process – down from the current hurdle of 50%. The NEC also agreed to create a second deputy leader, with the post to be filled by a woman. That neatly undermines newly svelte Tom Watson, Labour’s incumbent deputy, who is fervently anti-Corbyn.

However, these manoeuvres are probably too late to impact on an immediate General Election. In which case, expect a battle royal inside Labour if Corbyn tries to implement his neo-socialist agenda.

I’ve absolutely no objections to Corbyn and McDonnell’s plans to democratise ownership of big industry. Indeed, I think the SNP should adopt these measures as their own – the party are already committed to substantial public ownership. Indeed, I think we should start with putting banking and the credit system into state, municipal and community ownership before we do anything else. Unless we socialise credit decisions, firms owned by the public and employees will find their investment and wage decisions pre-empted or vetoes by private financial interests.

Thereby hang my forebodings regarding the Corbyn programme: it fails to take into account the weight of political opposition from the City, Trump’s America and the EU – not to mention a Labour right-wing toying with defecting to a new centre party.

If he wants to transform the economy in an anti-capitalist direction, Corbyn will need allies inside and outside of Parliament. Unfortunately, north of the Border, Corbyn and right-wing Scottish Labour are still concentrating their political guns against the social democratic SNP Government rather than Ruth Davidson’s rabid gang of neoliberal fanatics. As a result, Labour in Scotland are losing ground, trailing third to the Tories (though we’ve not had a poll for a while). A Corbyn government will not succeed in wrestling industry away from the big hedge funds and private equity groups unless it can mobilise sustained popular support in the face of media hostility. Yet despite the amazing jump in Labour’s UK (mostly English) membership – it is now the largest political party in Europe – the focus of leadership activity has been geared to a traditional parliamentary schedule. Far from becoming a genuine left-populist movement in the European mould (in which I include the Scottish Yes campaign), Corbynism remains tied to a narrow and sectarian Labour Party electoral agenda. That could be its downfall.

Yet there are some radical, non-sectarian green shoots appearing. One significant innovation at recent Labour conferences is a parallel festival of politics and arts called The World Transformed (TWT), which is open to non-Labour Party members. Instigated largely by the Momentum group of grassroots Corbyn supporters, TWT offers open debates, music and socialising aimed at escaping and humanising the straight-laced, heavily-controlled official conference.

This year’s TWT is double the size of previous ones, suggesting there’s a huge appetite for events that engage conference delegates rather than treat them as a passive audience for the party hierarchy. Commendably, TWT speakers come from both inside and outside the Labour Party. In fact, a significant section of the UK political left is on duty, including Scotland’s Jonathon Shafi, Common Weal’s campaigns director. Memo to SNP: why not encourage a similar event rather than continue to turn the conference fringe into a shopping mall for dubious corporate lobbyists.

The big draw at TWT 2018 is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the anti-capitalist, radical France Insoumise movement, who won nearly a fifth of the popular vote in last year’s French presidential election. Having Mélenchon speak at a quasi-Labour event is transformative because Labour bosses have always religiously prioritised links with the official French Socialist Party, now an ailing and corrupt political force. Building bridges between Corbyn’s Labour and Mélenchon’s France Insourmise opens the prospect of a left-populist pole of attraction across Europe, should Labour win the coming general election.

If Corbyn’s Labour is willing to reach beyond the moribund, official “socialist” parties of Europe, why not reach out to other movements? Some are closer to hand than Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Here’s a challenge to the organisers of the next TWT: invite Nicola Sturgeon. I dare you.