A FORMER European Council president has forecast a no-deal Brexit will lead to increased support for Scottish independence.
Herman Van Rompuy’s comments were welcomed by Stephen Gethins, the SNP’s foreign affairs spokesman at Westminster last night as Scottish Brexit Secretary Mike Russell said he detected the scepticism among EU leaders about independence ahead of the 2014 referendum had now “gone away”.
Appearing at an Edinburgh Festival fringe event, Russell suggested EU leaders’ stance on an independent Scotland had softened.
“I do think that if this process [of Scottish independence] is undertaken constitutionally and correctly then it will be accepted by all member states,” he said. But it has to be done constitutionally and correctly, and that’s what we will do.
“I do detect throughout the EU a much stronger sympathy. I do think that the scepticism of 2014 has gone away.”
Asked about the timing of a second referendum, Russell said “he did not accept the premise” that the UK Government would not grant a Section 30 Order – the mechanism through which the 2014 ballot was held.
“I think that is something which is still a possibility,” he said.
He continued: “When we get to the stage where it’s Brexit or independence, people will have to be asked that question. I don’t know when that will be but I do think that will have to happen.
“As to how that happens I think that’s a matter we will have to work on in the next two to three years.”
Russell went on to clarify: “I’m not setting a two or three year timetable.
“I think we are now in a position where we have to look at this almost on a daily basis, certainly on a rolling basis. So I’m not setting a two or three year timetable, nor am I setting a one year timetable.”
Commenting on Van Rompuy ‘s remarks in yesterday’s Observer, Gethins said the former European Council president was “absolutely right” that “the arrogant behaviour of the Tory government is likely to make more and more people in Scotland see the benefits and attractions of independence”.
He added: “Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, and since the referendum over two years ago, Scotland’s voice and votes have been ignored. At the same time, the Tory government in Westminster is using Brexit as a means of ploughing ahead with its power grab from the devolved administrations.”
Van Rompuy said the threat of a no-deal Brexit was a new “operation fear” tactic being used by the UK Government. He added it would not work with the EU and said such an outcome would create new backing for Scottish independence.
“The no-deal issue is not just a problem for the UK or Brussels,” he said. “It is also an existential threat to the UK itself.
“One can imagine that a no deal will have a big impact and cause concern in some of the regions. Speaking of Scotland, it could have consequences for them and others.”
He added: “We could end up with a situation in which the EU27 becomes more united and a United Kingdom less united.”
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said last week a no-deal Brexit would be an “unmitigated disaster” and is due to outline her thinking on a second independence referendum in the autumn when there is due to be more clarity on the Brexit deal.
Theresa May will gather her warring Cabinet ministers for crisis talks next month as the UK faces a no deal. Amid splits at the top of Government over no deal preparations, she has reportedly told ministers to clear their diaries for a September 13 cabinet summit on planning for such an exit. May is under pressure from hardline Eurosceptics in her party after Chancellor Philip Hammond’s warning an £80 billion black hole in the public finances stood in stark contrast to reassurances from Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab about the UK’s ability to cope with such a scenario.
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