THE Scottish economy could be grown significantly over the coming years if it had the same tools as successful small independent countries, the SNP has said.
The forecast follows an independent analysis by the Scottish Parliament’s information centre (Spice) which set out the possible boost to GDP from other small nations including Austria, Ireland, Norway and Denmark, and compared their performance to that of the UK.
It found that matching projected Irish growth to 2023 would result in an additional £30 billion for Scotland – the equivalent of the entire block grant from Westminster.
Keeping pace with Norway would provide a boost by up to £12bn – with a £10.4bn increase by matching Denmark, and £9.7bn by matching Austria.
“This new independent analysis is incredibly revealing – it is clearer than ever that Westminster is holding back Scotland’s economic potential,” said the SNP MSP Ivan McKee .
“Just by matching the modest growth forecasts of small independent countries such as Norway, Denmark and Austria, Scotland could receive a significantly greater economic boost compared to continuing to follow the UK’s failed London centric economic model.”
The analysis was published weeks after the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission report found that small independent countries have consistently outperformed larger economies by 0.7% on average.
The commission, chaired by former MSP Andrew Wilson, highlighted three key areas that could allow Scotland to catch up with its small independent counterparts over the coming decades – growing the population through immigration, increased productivity and greater participation in the economy.
The Spice analysis considered economic growth in various nations, and put the UK at the bottom of the table under countries including Ireland, New Zealand, Austria, The Netherlands and Finland.
Using forecasts from the IMF next year, the UK economy is expected to grow at just 1.5%, compared to an EU average of 2.1%, while in the same year Ireland’s economy is due to grow at 4% and Finland’s at 2%. Growth for Scotland as part of the UK was also slow, with the country’s GDP expected to rise by just 0.8%, according to the Scottish Fiscal Commission.
McKee added: “Of all the countries considered, it is the UK which is facing the lowest growth over the next five years – and this is only likely to be curtailed further as the disaster of Brexit continues to hit our economy.
“Scotland must show the ambition and innovation that other independent countries have if we are to catch up with them and grow our own economy – and the Sustainable Growth Commission’s report makes a clear case for how we can achieve this over the coming decades. It is increasingly clear that only with the powers of independence can Scotland do what is needed to boost our economy, improve living standards and create the kind of nation we all want to live in.”
The SNP established the Growth Commission in 2016 to update the economic case for independence. The party is organising meetings over the summer to debate its findings, and these discussions will be chaired by newly elected deputy Keith Brown.
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