THE European Union is forecast to be the only region in the world that will see a decline in energy consumption and production to 2040, according to BP.

The oil giant added that the bloc will also witness the largest decline in carbon emissions.

BP predicted that the EU’s demand for energy will fall 11% by 2040, in contrast with the past 20 years, during which demand has been broadly flat. Production is forecast to decline by 5%.

In its Regional Outlook for Europe, BP said the EU’s energy mix will continue to evolve, with coal and oil dropping from a 51% share in 2016 to 32% by 2040. The share of natural gas will increase from 24% to 27% in the same time frame.

The company said declining demand for fossil fuels will be offset by a rise in renewables, which will increase their share from 9% to 27% and hydro from 5% to 6%.

Renewables growth will be driven by wind (4.8% per annum) and solar (4.9%pa). By 2040, the report said the EU will meet 15% of energy demand by wind, solar and biomass will account for 5% each and biofuels for less than 1% of demand.

BP said the power sector will become increasingly important, accounting for half of energy consumption by 2040.

It predicts very little change in the sectorial mix of energy demand, with declines in all sectors – transport (-0.8%pa), industry (-0.7%pa), non-combusted industry (-0.9%pa) and buildings (-0.1%pa).

Nuclear is expected to decrease by -1.5%pa by 2040 and the EU’s share of global nuclear generation will halve to less than 15% by 2040.

Oil and gas production in the EU will fall by more than 60% by 2040. In 2040 the EU will produce fewer than one million barrels per day (mb/d).

Dependence on oil imports is anticipated to rise from 85% in 2016 to 92% in 2040, and gas dependence from 72% to 89%. Oil imports will fall to 7mb/d, while gas imports will rise to 37 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2040.

Energy intensity – the amount of energy required per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) – is expected to fall by 34% from 2016-40.

Carbon emissions will continue to fall, with emissions in 2040 at 50% of the 1990 levels.

The EU will see largest decline across any region.

BP Group’s chief economist, Spencer Dale, said: “We are seeing growing competition between different energy sources, driven by abundant energy supplies, and continued improvements in energy efficiency.

“As the world learns to do more with less, demand for energy will be met by the most diverse fuels mix we have ever seen.”

BP has extended its Energy Outlook by five years to 2040 compared to previous editions and using the “evolving transition” (ET) scenario, it highlights several key changes in the global picture.

There are anticipated to be nearly 190 million electric cars by 2035, higher than the base case in its report for last year of 100m.

The stock of electric cars is projected to increase by a further 130m in the subsequent five years, reaching around 320m by 2040.

Another trend that comes into sharper focus is the shift from China to India as the primary driver of global energy demand.

BP said the progressively smaller increments in China’s energy demand – as its economic growth slows and energy intensity declines – contrasts with the continuing growth in India – between 2035 and 2040, its demand growth is more than 2.5 times that of China, representing more than a third of the global rise.

It said growth in global energy demand is driven by increasing prosperity – enabled by plentiful supplies of energy – and improving living standards in fast-growing, emerging economies.

“China and India each roughly providing around a quarter of the growth in energy demand over the next 25 years,” added Dale.

“Over the last 20 years China has been the dominant growth market for energy. But as growth of energy demand in China slows, by the mid-2020s I think India is likely to emerge as the dominant driver of energy growth in the back half of the 2020s and through into the 2030s. When you look ahead, Africa is likely to see a huge wave of urbanisation over the next 20 to 25 years and this will play a key role in driving prosperity there, but also energy demand.

“Even if growth of productivity in Africa remains relatively weak, its sheer size as it continues to grow means it’s likely to play an increasing role within the energy market.”