SCOTLAND’S economy will suffer a £12.7 billion a year blow if the UK leaves the European Union without getting a trade deal, a stark new analysis published by the First Minister today warns.

The National has been told the report says the alarming figure represents the loss of around £2300 per annum for each person north of the Border by the year 2030 – the equivalent of a 8.5 per cent drop in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Prime Minister Theresa May has regularly underlined that a “no deal” scenario is on the table, and has repeatedly stated that in her opinion “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

A no-deal Brexit would mean the UK would have to rely on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules to do business with the EU, meaning tariffs of up to 40 per cent would be imposed on goods moving each way.

Nicola Sturgeon will unveil the full details of the Scotland’s Place in Europe, People, Jobs and Investment report in Edinburgh this morning.

It is the first publicly available research document written by civil servants examining the impact of Brexit on Scotland and follows the UK Government’s refusal to publish the details of its own sectoral analysis.

Ahead of its publication, the First Minister appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show yesterday and restated her view that independence “is the best future for Scotland”.

However, she also made clear she believes Scots voters want to see clarity over the nature of the future relationship between the UK and Europe before voting again on independence. She said that future UK/EU relationship should be clearer by October following the end of talks.

Sturgeon said: “At that point, what I’ve said is that we will look at that and determine at that stage if Scotland should then have the right to choose between whatever that new relationship with the UK is going to be or choosing to be an independent country.”

Marr also raised the subject of a possible future timetable for a new vote on independence and whether waiting to decide until the terms of Brexit are clear this autumn would leave time to hold a new vote before the UK leaves the EU. In response, the First Minister raised the possibility of a vote during the transition period – which would be before the next Holyrood election in 2021.

“We have a situation where the Prime Minister has said there will be now be a two-year implementation period, I think everyone else calls it a transition period,” Sturgeon told Marr.

“I’ll make judgments and my judgments are that I’ll have to put down to the Scottish Parliament what I believe is in the best interests of Scotland, protecting our best interests in all circumstances.”

The timetable broadly chimes with comments made by European expert Dr Kirsty Hughes who has previously said holding a successful new independence referendum during early 2019 would allow an independent Scotland a smooth transition to EU membership, if it decided to remain part of the bloc.

Hughes, who is director of the Scottish Centre of European Relations, told The National in December: “If the roughly two years [transition] were to end in early 2021, then if Scotland voted for independence and wanted the smoothest possible transition into EU membership, it would need to have an independence referendum in early-ish 2019.

“This wouldn’t mean that Scotland would automatically become an EU member state in 2021, as the rest of the UK left.

“But it would make it much easier, if Scotland was independent by then, to perhaps prolong the transition just for Scotland as it opened accession talks with the EU27 if it was independent in 2021.”

The Scottish Government’s study being published today will also look at the lesser economic damage it has forecast for the other two Brexit scenarios, leaving with a trade deal or, like Norway, retaining single market membership without being a EU member.

During her interview with Marr yesterday the First Minister said she believes there is a majority in the House of Commons for staying in the single market.

She said: “I believe there is a majority in the House of Commons for remaining within the single market if Labour gets its act together.

“The vast majority of Labour members want to see the UK stay in the single market, and we can bring that consensus together then I believe there is an opportunity.

Jeremy Corbyn has to decide where he stands on all of this. I think most of his supporters will be deeply disappointed that he appears to be only slightly less in favour of a hard Brexit than the Tories are and many will find that completely inexplicable.”

Sturgeon said no clarity or certainty has been provided about a hard Brexit’s supposed benefits.

The SNP leader said: “More than 18 months on from the Brexit vote, it beggars belief that the UK Government is not only still unable to say what kind of relationship it wants with the EU, it has also failed to produce any meaningful economic assessment of the different possibilities. Bluntly, the hard Brexiteers have had their chance and failed.”

A UK Government spokeswoman said: “We are seeking a deal that works for the whole of the UK, that delivers on the result of the EU referendum.

“Rather than trying to undermine the result of a democratic referendum, we urge the Scottish Government to work with us to ensure, as we leave the EU, we protect the UK’s vital internal market. Scotland trades four times as much with the rest of the UK as it does with the EU, so it is vital we ensure that market continues unimpeded.”