A strong independence sprint the day before Catalans vote for their new Parliament.
ERC, Junts per Catalunya and CUP maintain their absolute majority whilst the unionist parties (Cs, PSC and PP) stall. That's the revelation from the figures in this fifth and penultimate tracking poll by Feedback over the 21st December election which The National is publishing 24 hours before polling stations open.
This newspaper has offered a new set of results from our survey every day since Saturday and will publish two this Wednesday, the "day of reflection". The sample is 1000 interviews. The data collection for these fifth results ended at 4pm this Tuesday. The first poll was published on Saturday; the second, Sunday; the third, Monday and the fourth, Tuesday.
At the head of the race there is again a three-way draw, but the pro-independence parties improve their hopes in relation to the fourth poll. The unionists Ciutadans (Cs), led by Inés Arrimadas, come first, but stall on 32-33 seats and lose more than half a point in the projected vote share (23.44%). On the other hand, Esquerra Republicana (ERC), the party of imprisoned vice-president Oriol Junqueras, in second place in the table, climbs from 30-32 to 31-33 seats and 0.7 points more (21.92%).
Also advancing are Junts per Catalunya (JuntsXCat), the list of president Carles Puigdemont, exiled in Brussels, who could draw with ERC having gone from 27-29 to 29-31 seats and winning almost a point in estimated vote (20.08%).
In fourth place, PSC, led by Miquel Iceta, who suffer an important setback, with 17-19 seats and 13.93% of the vote (19-21 in the previous survey and 14.67%).
In fifth place, CUP, the anti-capitalist, pro-independence left wing party which has supported the Puigdemont-Junqueras government, loses strength (from 7.63% to 7.51%), but its consolidates 9 deputies (9-10 in the previous survey).
The Catalunya En Comú-Podem list, in sixth place, suffers a new fall from 8-9 seats to 7-9 for more than half a point in estimated vote: from 6.67% to 6.15%.
In seventh and final place remains PP. The party of Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy improves its percentage to 6.00% but stagnates on its range of 6-7 seats.
The end of the campaign widens the distance between the two great blocs in favour of the indy side. ERC, JuntsXCat and CUP obtain an absolute majority with a range of 69 to 73 seats, in other words, from 1 to 5 above the number needed (68). The estimated vote share, 49.50%, is the highest of this series of polls by Feedback and higher than they got in the 2015 elections (47.80%).
The pro-union bloc, (Cs, PSC and PP) falls back: 55-59 seats and 43.37%, two deputies and one point less than the previous survey. The pro-Spain side would end up 9 deputies short of an absolute majority. And the indy side would beat them by 14 deputies and more than 6% of the vote.
The turnout, very high, appears to stay still, with 82.33% predicted (74.95% in 2015). On the other hand, undecided voters grow from 23.2% to 25.1%. In absolute terms: 1,394,050 voters.
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