SCOTLAND’s population is expected to rise by five per cent over the next quarter of a century with the number of pensioners increasing by 25 per cent in the same period.
The latest figures from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) have projected the population rising from 5.4 million in 2016 to 5.58m in 2026 and continuing to grow to 5.69 million in 2041.
At the same time, the number of people of pensionable age will increase by 25 per cent, while those aged over 75 will rise sharply by 79 per cent.
The number of people of working age will increase by one per cent, and the number of children will decrease by two per cent.
Deaths are expected to continue to exceed the number of births every year.
Statisticians said all of the projected increase in Scotland’s population over the next 10 years was due to migration into Scotland.
More than half – 58 per cent – is projected to come from overseas, with 42 per cent from the rest of the UK.
The projections are based on the latest population estimates for 2016, and provide an indication of the future size and age structure of Scotland’s population based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration.
Tim Ellis, the registrar general of Scotland, said: “The latest population projections show Scotland’s population is projected to continue to increase and to age over the next 25 years.
“The rise in population is driven by projected migration into Scotland both from rest of the UK and from overseas, while the number of deaths is projected to exceed the number of births every year.
“Over the period we also expect to see the number of people of pensionable age increase by 25 per cent, while the number of people of working age will increase by one per cent and the number of children will decrease by two per cent.”
The Scottish Government, meanwhile, has highlighted an additional set of figures which illustrate the effects of differing levels of European Union migration into Scotland. While the data were prepared by the Office for National Statistics, they do not have national statistics status.
They show the effect on Scotland’s population if EU migration was half of its current level, or zero.
Where EU migration falls to half of current levels would result in Scotland’s population rising by four per cent over the next 25 years, while no future migration from the bloc would see it increase by two per cent.
It would then peak in 2032 before going into decline until 2041.
In the zero EU migration scenario, Scotland’s working age population is projected to decline by three per cent over the next 25 years, while the pensioner population is projected to increase by a quarter, resulting in an increase in the dependency ratio.
External Affairs Secretary Fiona Hyslop added: “These figures illustrate the critical importance of maintaining inward migration to Scotland — including maintaining the existing freedom of movement with European neighbours — to help increase Scotland’s population and grow the economy.
“As our population ages, the continued availability of labour from across Europe is essential to meet our economic and social needs and to address potential skills shortages in all sectors of the labour market.
“The stark reality outlined in today’s figures is that projected growth in Scotland’s population will slow significantly if levels of EU migration are reduced. And in that scenario the population is also predicted to start declining again within the next 25 years.
“That would have a significant negative impact on Scotland’s economy and our ability to fund the public services we will need for an ageing population.”
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