I’M in the middle of Barcelona today, but none the wiser about the epic stand-off between the Catalonian and Spanish governments. At the time of writing, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has defied all expectations and failed to announce either snap elections or a unilateral declaration of independence. The next move is being decided by members of the Catalan Parliament.

Comments during a televised BBC World debate recorded the night before in the Catalan capital, helped clarify the impossible dilemma facing Puigdemont and the independence-supporting coalition in the Catalan Parliament.

If they move towards independence on the basis of a double mandate through recent elections and winning the recent unofficial referendum (despite a low 43 per cent turnout) they might have the moral and even the democratic high ground – but would hit the buffers of EU law like a runaway train.

Professor Ricardo Gosalbo Bono, an EU constitutional expert, told the BBC Barcelona audience that EU law means regions must comply with the constitutional arrangements of the member state and other EU member states are not free to recognise regions making unilateral declarations of independence. EU treaties will immediately cease to apply to any regions that separate from member states – so an independent Catalonia would be automatically expelled from the EU, unable to trade with it (a bit like a very hard and sudden Brexit) and would be unable to use the Euro.

That would add to a perilous economic situation where a thousand companies are said to have relocated their official headquarters out of the region and it’s rumoured the car-firm Seat has been pressured to do the same by Madrid.

Of course, Catalonia once outside Spain and the EU could apply to re-join – but there are two conditions. Firstly it must be a European state (and that means being recognised as such by EU members), and secondly it must respect human rights and the rule of law (which puts the “rebel” state right back to the beginning again).

It’s hard, hardball from the EU, which has failed to say a critical word about the force and brutality of Spanish police during the October 1st referendum, even though the use of disproportionate force breaks EU rules of governance.

If you think this means Catalonia is being kippered by a creaking old-fashioned big boys club, working to protect the interests of its biggest members – you’d be right.

Spain wasn’t actually among the “inner six”, applying in 1977 but only joining with Portugal in 1986. But many of the Big Six – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands – have “separatist” movements of their own and fear that if Catalonia manages to escape Madrid control it will prompt a flurry of similar “breakaways”.

It’s true that more than 5 million Italians took part in two referendums last weekend demanding more autonomy for the rich, northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto. But the turnouts were low (57 per cent and 38 per cent respectively). So is Italy on the verge of break-up -- does Bavaria want to secede from Germany? Or are these worries like the exaggerated fears that Euro-scepticism would sweep the continent in the wake of Brexit – when it actually didn’t.

In any case, why should the distant prospect of constitutional change in Italy act as a break on the legitimate aspirations of the Catalans? It isn’t fair, but as the Troika’s treatment of Greece has already shown, fairness is not a big feature of EU strategy and small countries are not much of a priority for the big players.

Strangely though, both sides in the Catalan debate seem to view Scotland differently. That’s partly because we don’t have ethnic, linguistic or religious differences binding our nation together – the cause of Scottish independence is generally acknowledged to be a civic nationalism, without the racial overtones that characterised, for example, the violent collapse of Yugoslavia.

The fact that Scotland was once an independent state with its own enduring legal system also gives our case a credibility Catalonia lacks.

But the fact London agreed to a legally binding referendum matters far more to onlookers outside the UK, than I had ever realised before I came to Barcelona to participate in the BBC debate.

It’s clear the Edinburgh Agreement between the UK and Scottish Governments is seen as the international gold standard of dealing properly with constitutional disputes. The transfer of Section 30 powers made that 2014 vote legally binding – not just advisory – which in turn gave it the validity and authority that prompted the whopping 85 per cent turnout

It’s the job of independence supporters and the Scottish Government to ensure the Edinburgh Agreement was not a one-off but a template for dealing peacefully and respectfully with political difference when it happens again. And that moment of legitimate political difference is very likely to occur when the Brexit deal demonstrates that a “material change in circumstances” has indeed taken place.

If another legally binding referendum is not on offer, Scotland will be effectively in the same beleaguered situation as Catalonia. It’s true that the lack of a written constitution means Scottish independence is not constitutionally impossible.

But if Nicola Sturgeon’s next request is swept away with another “not now” from Theresa May or her successor – what then?

Will the Scottish Parliament consider snap elections or UDI? Would the UK Government consider imposing direct rule a la Madrid? Very probably not – on either side.

The SNP know legitimacy matters to voters who voted No last time but might yet change their minds. The UK Government knows what Madrid evidently still must learn. A deep-seated political difference cannot be solved by constitutional obfuscation, legal niceties, military might or campaigns of violence.

In the end, there must be a political solution. It’s better all round if it comes sooner not later.

It took long decades of conflict in Northern Ireland before the UK Government and paramilitaries on both sides accepted that truth. Perhaps belated recognition of that political failure helps explain the UK Government’s willingness to recognise Scottish independence as a legitimate cause (even if they did try to crush it with every scare story in the book).

But the Madrid Government is different. It just won’t admit the Catalans have a valid political case.

Instead, they are determined to keep talking about the constitution and pretend they have no choice but to implement Article 155 today, arresting more Catalan political leaders and taking over public services including the police and education, as well as public-funded radio and TV stations.

This will bring resistance and chaos – and it will be the fault of the Spanish Government.

Amadeu Altafaj is the permanent representative of the Catalan Government to the European Union and in Wednesday’s BBC debate he made a point I’m sure most Scots would endorse.

“In any normal country if you have demonstrations with one million people on the streets, a government would conclude it had a problem,” he said. “The problem is a lack of politics and instead force being used by Madrid. Now we are on a journey into the unknown, with chaos and uncertainty. Dissolving the Catalan Government is a recipe for violence on the streets because there will be no longer be an official interlocutor, no legal conduit for our cause. Just angry people on the streets.”

He is right. Spanish politicians are hiding behind the law.

To be fair, Professor Gosalbo did concede international law has a rather different view on things – the UN Charter of Human Rights talks about the right of secession and the right of self-determination. How do they slot together with the “no secession” rules of the EU? It may be that the Catalans will force a court somewhere to decide.

For now it looks like the Catalans have decided to force the Spanish to do the “dirty deed” and crush their society in a way that will certainly look like outright repression to the rest of the world.

Spain is at a crossroads tonight – so is the EU.

Will either of these authorities wake up and acknowledge the democratic challenge Catalonia poses to their old order?

BBC Crisis in Catalonia debate was recorded on 25.10.17 in Barcelona for BBC World TV and World Service Radio. Panel included speakers from Spanish & Catalan governments, EU law expert and National columnist Lesley Riddoch. 

Radio link http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csv2q6#play

TV download we.tl/IfZgT5Cz9i