RESEARCHERS at Edinburgh University have pinpointed 37 diseases that are likely candidates for the next major pandemic.
Experts have drawn up a list of viruses they believe have the potential to spread across the globe and all of them have shown the ability to spread between people, but have not so far caused a major epidemic.
The Mers coronavirus, relatives of the Ebola virus, and several mosquito-borne viruses are singled out by the study and researchers said these viruses had all caused disease outbreaks in the past and were the cause of “greatest concern”.
The method the team used to identify the most dangerous viruses has already predicted the threat of both the Ebola and Zika viruses before they emerged to cause major epidemics.
These infections are all zoonotic, meaning that they mostly affect animals at present but scientists warn they could pose a major threat to human health if they become able to spread more easily between people.
Surveillance of these viruses should be stepped up to avoid major public health crises, such as that seen in West Africa during the recent Ebola outbreak, the researchers say.
The Edinburgh University team reviewed characteristics of the viruses, including what species they can infect and how easily they can adapt to new hosts. They also considered the severity of the illnesses they cause.
Professor Mark Woolhouse said: “Monitoring these infections should be prioritised because relatively minor changes in their ecology could lead to major changes in the threat they pose to public health.”
The study, published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, was funded by the Wellcome Trust’s Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic Infections and by the European Union Compare project.
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