MOST Scots believe that Scottish independence is inevitable, according to a new poll.

The results of the Panelbase poll for a Sunday newspaper came as Nicola Sturgeon promised to include details of a second referendum for independence in the SNP’s manifesto for 2016’s Scottish Parliament election.

A second referendum on independence looks increasingly likely to happen before 2021.

Yesterday’s poll suggested only 47 per cent of people in Scotland would vote Yes in a referendum tomorrow, but more than half of all Scots believe they will see an independent Scotland within the next 15 years.

The poll was the latest marking “one year on”. A YouGov poll for another newspaper on Saturday found support for independence at 48 per cent. Earlier this week a poll for STV by Ipsos Mori found that 53 per cent of Scots would not vote Yes.

The poll published yesterday also found that 31 per cent think independence is likely in five to 10 years, up from 25 per cent in April. 24 per cent think it will happen in 10 to 15 years, and another 12 per cent think it will happen in 20 to 30 years.

Speaking to our sister paper, the Sunday Herald, Sturgeon revealed that the next SNP manifesto would include a number of scenarios which could include a second referendum.

“Our manifesto will set out what we consider are the circumstances and the timescale on which a second referendum might be appropriate, but we can only propose” The First Minister said.

“It’s then for people in Scotland, whether it is in this election or in future elections, to decide whether they want to vote for our manifesto and then if there is in the future another independence referendum – whether that’s in five years or 10 years or whenever – it will be down to the people of Scotland to decide whether they want to vote for independence or not.

“So at every single stage this is something that is driven by and decided by the people of Scotland, not by politicians.”

Those triggers are thought to include the oft-cited EU referendum, Trident renewal and English Votes for English Laws.

There may also be provision for “black swan” triggers, where something unexpected and supposedly unlikely happens.

Sturgeon said: “Ironically, given the scaremongering about our European Union membership during the independence referendum, if we find ourselves being taken out of Europe against our will I think it is beyond any doubt that people will at least want to consider again the question of independence.”

Opposition parties attacked the First Minister’s stance.

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said most Scots wanted to “put last year’s referendum behind them and get on with life”. She continued: “Despite her own promises, it is now clear that Nicola Sturgeon wants to take Scotland back to a neverendum.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: “People who regretted the divisive nature of the referendum and thought that democracy counted will be disappointed that Nicola Sturgeon is putting another referendum as a priority in her manifesto.

“A year after she promised us that it would be a once-in-a-lifetime event she is now putting her party first before the country by plunging us into another protracted campaign for independence.”

Labour’s Shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray dismissed the prospect of a second referendum as a past argument.

“While Labour is facing the future with new leaders who have an overwhelming mandate for change, the SNP are stuck in the arguments of the past. The SNP want the next election to be about the past arguments on independence because they can’t defend their record in government.”

In an interview for a STV documentary due to be broadcast tonight, Sturgeon says the next referendum will be held when she knows the Yes side will win.

“I don’t ever want to feel what I felt in the early hours of September 19” she said. “If we are going to have another independence referendum I want to know there is support in Scotland for independence that means that referendum is going to be successful.“

Yesterday’s poll also revealed where the the Yes campaign would have to work to win over voters. Some 45 per cent of those polled said Scotland would be financially worse off under independence, while 36 per cent think independence would make the country financially stronger.