I’VE spent the last week clearing out a new flat – swapping grease-stained leftovers for a mountain of cleaning supplies. The property has been empty for a while, so some parts had built up years of dirt and dust. After a quick trip to a cheap-ish local supermarket, I was on my way.

Fortunately, for tens of thousands of daily purchases like this in Scotland prices have remained steady in recent years. Inflation, measured by the consumer prices index, has been under two per cent for almost three years – meaning there haven’t been sudden spikes in overall living costs.

This has been crucial for millions of people. While wages have stagnated and rents have risen, low inflation has at least cushioned the financial hit in areas where people most often spend their cash: food, clothing and fuel bills.

After years of calm inflation, there are now concerning signs on the horizon. The impact of the Brexit vote has already lifted inflation from 0.6 per cent to one per cent for September. Further rises are expected.

It’s inflation as much as the “big politics” of Brexit that should cause concern about the UK’s future. Issues like migration rights and trade deals will inform whether we are an open society and the long-term success of the domestic economy. That matters – but inflation outstripping wages brings an immediate threat to deepen the pain of poverty and desperation of those already dispossessed by UK inequality.

Research last month by the Money Advice Service found that half of working-age Scots had less than £100 in savings, which meant they were only surviving month to month. It cannot be underestimated how much more difficult inflation levels of three to four per cent would make life for everyone in this position.

The sharp devaluation of the pound currently feels like an opaque business news story. What does it matter to me? Yet slowly – as importers to the UK increase their prices – the hit will be felt by everyone in food, clothing and fuel bills.

Unilever’s fight with Tesco over Marmite pricing was treated as an odd comedy, yet it’s actually the prelude to a serious economic crisis. US tech firms Microsoft and Apple have already sent their UK service costs soaring. Some 92 Unilever food products increased in cost at Morrisons in the last month. When these increases are widespread, they will hurt.

Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economic expects inflation of 3.2 per cent. Andrew Goodwin of Oxford Economics expects inflation of just below three per cent, which “will severely squeeze household spending power”. Economic advisor David Blanchflower predicts a “Brexit tsunami” with higher prices and sluggish wage growth.

So what? Aren’t economists always getting it wrong? That’s true – and it could swing in different directions. Triggering Article 50 next year, for instance, risks another slump in the value of sterling, which would exacerbate inflation increases even more.

The risk, like in most economic crises, is that the Tory government provides little to no support for those financially vulnerable to the economic instability they have caused. The drama of Tory Brexit is focused on subsidies for multinationals like Nissan and the City of London banks – not those on low or no pay.

Inflation increases – like the housing crisis or the horror of social security sanctions – will buzz in the background of “high-level” political debate, viewed as an uncomfortable political inevitability. The voices of those suffering at the hard end of Brexit – paying more and getting less, swamped by more debt and insecurity – will rarely be heard. When people do speak up, they will be patronised by elites who claim a monopoly on economic understanding.

There is another way. The Scottish Government and councils should do all they can to oppose Tory

Brexit in its political and economic forms. That means pushing the powers of devolution beyond their absolute limits to cap excessive rent costs, redistribute wealth through taxation and try to develop cheaper, local food systems to reduce financial pressure.

Raising the Scottish Government’s living wage scheme to £8.25 an hour yesterday was a start, even if it only applies to about 60,000 workers so far.

Given the severity of inequality, even using all devolved powers will not be enough. The reality may soon dawn that Tory Brexit isn’t only a threat to business, migration and international influence but to millions living on the breadline too. It’s too soon to predict the justified anger that inflation increases could cause, and how campaigners should act to survive that shock by any means necessary. We should, whatever happens next, be prepared for that challenge.

Michael Gray @GrayInGlasgow is a journalist with CommonSpace.scot