Michael Gray: Corbyn will fail for same reason Yes did not win

Yesterday another independence referendum anniversary slipped by: September 13 was when thousands of Yes supporters converged on the BBC to protest against its media coverage.

I think this was a significant, if not an especially glorious, moment in Scottish history. It represented the frustrations of hopeful people. For several years – if not longer – they had poured enthusiasm and resources into the cause of a better country and world.

In the media, which in the final weeks of that campaign amplified fears of economic chaos, they did not see their experience represented. In the case of a Corbyn-led Labour party we have a case of history repeating, and I fear his supporters are completely unprepared for the campaign of fear and misrepresentation that is already under way.

Alex Salmond has a fairly strong grasp of the campaign. It was how people accessed information, he contested, that heavily influenced their world view during the referendum.

Traditional media sources learned towards a No vote, while online and social media was dominated by a new generation of writers and bloggers on the Yes side. Smart folk in the Yes campaign understood that the former (print and broadcasting) remains far more influential than the latter.

That’s why SNP and Yes Scotland press teams were dedicated to getting campaign messages out on TV and in the papers – where hundreds of thousands of people gain a perspective on the world. Even leading blogger, Stuart Campbell of Wings Over Scotland, understood the limit of his medium. So he crowd-funded over 300,000 copies of a paper campaign booklet for distribution.

Campaigns must understand that the general public's view is very different from converts or activists. The drip, drip of stories about the economic ‘risks’ of independence or JeremyCorbyn’s ‘threat to national security’ are intended for cautious swing voters. If repeated – in The Mail, Express, Telegraph, Sun, Record and on the BBC – with a limited right of reply then it has the ability to turn an election.

For the Yes campaign this wasn’t fatal. The Sunday Herald backed a Yes vote. There were many pro-Yes commentators. The Sun came close to saying Yes in the final days. And The Herald and others at least gave the campaign a fair hearing.

While a conservative press presented a challenge, it was not unassailable. Today – with The National and a different media landscape – there are no excuses and independence will succeed or fail on the strength of its political and economic arguments.

Corbyn, however, is up against a wall of sound and seems unable to respond to it. Every major newspaper in London is opposed to his leadership. Yesterday he was drawn in a bin on the cover of a major tabloid and chased down the street by Sky News journalists. He’s already been character cast as a anti-semitic, terrorist sympathiser who hates the rich. Yesteday The Telegraph described Corbyn's shadow chancellor as a “nutjob”.

It’s rubbishbollocks. And those attuned to political misinformation and spin will see through it. But that isn’t the target audience.

As one of Corbyn’s few media backers, columnist Owen Jones, has said – this dirt will stick. What English Labour desperately needs is to be on the front foot, discussing policies that are popular such as renationalisation, fairer taxes, support for public services and investment, and an opposition to war.

But what has Corbyn’s media strategy been so far? He ditched a live TV interview with Andrew Marr on Day One. He spent Sunday night ignoring reporters. The announcement of his shadow Cabinet went on until 1am in the morning to avoid the print deadlines and was so poorly orchestrated it was accused of sexism for excluding women (despite eventually being gender balanced!) Worryingly, he thinks social media has transformed the rules of media. It hasn’t, yet.

I hope Corbyn does lead England to revolutionary political change, but I doubt he will. Too many supporters seem intent on making the same mistakes some on the Yes side made – assuming that a massive political movement or social media is enough to win nationwide support.

Without credibility in the place where most people access political information – television and the press – victory is near impossible.

Instead, I can already envisage the crowds gathering outside BBC Broadcasting House in London with 'Tory bias’ signs aloft. They will say, with an element of truth, that their hopes for change were frustrated by the conservative instincts of the media.

A new socialist Labour could yet change that prophecy, but the early signs aren’t great. Despite strong principles, the lack of a media strategy makes Corbyn’s downfall look sadly predictable.