SCOTTISH job prospects remain weak, with almost one in three (32%) employers expecting to cut staff in the third quarter of 2020, according to new research.
The latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook report from the CIPD – the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development – and the Adecco Group shows a considerable increase in the number of Scottish businesses expecting to cut jobs compared to the spring report, rising from 19% three months ago to 32%. Across the UK, twice as many private sector employers (38%) expect to make redundancies compared to the public sector (16%).
The survey found that overall hiring intentions in Scotland have remained relatively consistent over the last three months, with 43% of employers expecting to take on new hires three months ago compared to 41% this quarter – remaining well below levels seen in previous years.
The report’s net employment balance for Scotland, which measures the difference between the proportion of employers who expect to increase staff levels and those who expect to decrease staff levels, has plunged to -17 from +6 over the last three months. This compares to a net figure of -8 for the UK as a whole.
The survey also found UK employers across all sectors intend to keep a tight rein on pay increases over the next 12 months. Those who plan pay reviews expect basic wages to increase by 1%, compared to a 2% median increase expected this time last year. Median basic pay expectations in the private sector have increased to 0.8% from 0% three months ago.
Lee Ann Panglea, head of CIPD Scotland and NI, the professional body for HR and people development, said: “This is the weakest set of data we’ve seen for several years. Until now, redundancies have been low – no doubt due to the Job Retention Scheme – but we expect to see more redundancies come through this autumn, especially in the private sector once the scheme closes.
“It is concerning to see low hiring confidence in Scotland, especially considering the rise in planned redundancies. As a result, this looks set to be a sombre autumn for jobs.
“This will likely be accompanied by a pay squeeze, which could actually be an important factor in limiting large-scale job cuts.”
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