"SEISMIC" seems to be the superlative of choice today after Labour delivered an absolute thrashing of the SNP in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
TWO polls, two seemingly very different implications. A YouGov poll suggesting that Labour and the SNP would be neck-and-neck in a General Election and an Ipsos poll implying a substantial SNP advantage in Westminster seats.
WE have just edged past the two-month mark since the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold an independence referendum without a Section 30 order. In those two months, we have had four polls asking Scots how they would vote in a General Election treated by the SNP, and other pro-independence parties, as a "de facto referendum".
SINCE the 2014 independence referendum, we have seen two kinds of "shocks" in our politics that have coincided with increased support for Scottish independence. There are one-off events that propel constitutional politics to the forefront of the public consciousness and slower shifts in perceptions of the competence of Scotland’s two governments.
IT has been a turbulent few weeks for the Scottish independence movement and the SNP.
IN the aftermath of last week’s UK Supreme Court decision that the Scottish Government cannot legislate for an independence referendum without a Section 30 transfer of power from Westminster, speculation about the impact of that decision on support for Scottish independence has been rife.
IN the hours after yesterday’s UK Supreme Court ruling found that Holyrood cannot legislate for a second independence referendum, the First Minister reaffirmed her commitment to treating the next UK General Election as a "de-facto referendum".
PRIME ministerial resignations are not rare – four of the six preceding Boris Johnson resigned from office. It has, however, been almost 60 years since Harold Macmillan was the last incumbent of 10 Downing Street to resign over a series of scandals.
Talk of electoral pacts is back in vogue. Again.
IF my experience of the past year of analysing and discussing Scottish polling has taught me anything, it’s that online commentary around polls generates a lot of noise and not much illumination. The response to the latest Ipsos MORI poll showing Yes on 52% (up +5 since May) and No on 43% (down -4) is no different.
