WHAT’S THE STORY?

CRUNCH time in one of the world’s most serious crises is reached – as negotiators struggle to agree a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Failure could increase tensions between Iran and the West with relations already at breaking point. A decade of pressure by world leaders on Iran has soured diplomatic relations but a deal could ease the strain.

The talks in Switzerland between foreign ministers from six world powers and Iran entered their final day yesterday with US Secretary of State John Kerry saying they had achieved “some light” but there were still “tricky issues”.

The ministers from the US, China, Russia, Germany, France and the UK (dubbed the P5+1) are working to produce a political framework with Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif which, it is hoped, will lead to a final accord in three months’ time.

While Iran maintains its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, world leaders want to make sure it is not used to develop nuclear weapons.

In order to do so, they believe Iran should be kept at least one year away from having the capability to make enough fuel for a single weapon.

DIFFICULTIES

IT is true that they are closer than ever before to reaching agreement with Iran and have made progress on curbing and monitoring the production of enriched uranium which is necessary for nuclear weapons.

However there are still areas where consensus is proving difficult.

These include the length of time Iran’s nuclear activities would be limited, with P5+1 saying they should be strictly limited for at least 10 years and removed gradually over the following five. Iran wants all limits lifted after 10 years.

“We must take precautions to ensure that what happens after the 10 years expire really is verifiable and transparent,” said German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. “We cannot allow there to be a really explosive development after 10 years.”

Iran is also resisting a demand to move its existing stockpile of nuclear fuel out of the country and wants to be allowed to develop advanced centrifuges which can make enriched uranium more quickly and in larger amounts. However the enriched uranium could be used for bombs as well as fuel for nuclear reactors.

The other main sticking points are the sanctions currently in place against Iran. P5+1 say they should be eased gradually, particularly those on imports of nuclear-related technology, while Iran wants them all lifted at once.

Europe and the US also want a mechanism which would mean sanctions could be re-imposed quickly if Iran breaks any conditions of the deal.

DISTRUST

EVEN if agreement is reached in Lausanne, other countries in the Middle East are not happy about the prospect and their distrust, it is feared, could spark a nuclear arms race in a region which is already very unstable.

Israel, in particular, is opposed to any deal, believing it shows that “Iran stands to gain by its aggression”.

Isreali prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains that Iran believes Israel has no right to exist and that it therefore should not have a single centrifuge.

Saudi Arabia is also against the deal, believing that an end to sanctions will strengthen Iran’s economy and help it build up its military might.

As the main Sunni power – and rival to Shia Iran – Saudi Arabia is worried that any compromises made by P5+1 will lead to Iran being able to make a nuclear bomb.

This has led Israel to warn that Saudi Arabia and other countries like Egypt could try to build nuclear weapons before Iran has the chance.

Opposition has also come from hardliners in both the US and Iran, with the latter believing they have the right to do what they want without any humiliating compromises.

Republicans and even some Democrats in the US say that Israel is right to believe any deal is dangerous.

Any failure to reach a compromise would be a setback for US President Barack Obama who supports the negotiations.

SINGLED OUT

THE hardliners in Iran complain they are being singled out as other countries have nuclear programmes and there are at least eight with nuclear weapons.

However Iran has been guilty of previous deception after hiding a uranium enrichment programme for 18 years, breaching the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Furthermore, a US intelligence report made in 2007 maintained that Iran had been working on a nuclear weapons programme, although this had been stopped in 2003.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also says Iran is not coming clean about its past activity after banning IAEA inspectors from suspected nuclear tests at a military site.

Iran, on the other hand, complains no-one is doing anything about Israel which is also believed to have nuclear weapons, but along with Pakistan and India, has not signed the NPT.

Despite Iran’s complaints it seems likely that a deal will be thrashed out as the international sanctions it has endured has brought it close to economic collapse.

Even though some sanctions were eased two years ago in return for giving UN inspectors better access and a commitment to easing work on uranium enrichment, the economy is still suffering greatly.

“Iran wants this more than we do and certainly needs it more than we do,” said Matthew McInnis, a former Iran analyst for US Central Command, who’s now at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.

Even if the deadline is missed, none of the parties at the table will walk away, according to Reza Marashi, research director of the National Iranian American Council.

“Both sides stand to lose massively. “There is a propensity to focus on minutiae, but what has got lost is how much each side has to lose,” Marashi said.

“Are we going to let this collapse over differences on how long Iran isn’t allowed to work on new centrifuges?”

At least the weather in Switzerland was propitious as it has been cold and wet – a sign of good luck in Persian culture.