DEPENDING on which newspapers you read, Italy is about to hold an election which, if won by the euro-hating, European Union-despising parties, will mean the end of the euro and the EU.
Alternatively, we are seeing yet another burst of typical Italian political chaos in a country which has had 26 different prime ministers, with some serving several terms and with many more changes of government since it became a republic in 1946.
By contrast, in that timescale the UK has had 14 different prime ministers, with only one – Harold Wilson – returning to the role after outright defeat.
In Italy, defeat in politics just means you go back on the waiting list! Amintore Fanfani of the Christian Democrats, for instance, made FOUR comebacks after being out of office, the last in 1987, a full 33 years after he first became prime minister. Silvio Berlusconi of more recent memory also served three seperate terms as prime minister, twice as leader of Forza Italia and the last as leader of Il Popolo della Libertà, the People of Freedom.
BUT THIS TIME IT’S SERIOUS?
INDEED it appears to be so. What happened was that in the last election in March, the League and Five Star parties won big. The former used to be the Lega Nord and was a regional party that wanted a federal Italy and the Northern regions to keep their own resources. While maintaining its federal stance, it is now transformed into an anti-immigrant and very Eurosceptic party. The Five Star movement was begun by Beppe Grillo, a comedian and blogger in 2009, standing on an anti-establishment ticket. Imagine Paul Kavanagh (who is funnier than Grillo) and the Wee Ginger Dug starting a political party – some of us think they should – and then racing to the fore of Scottish politics and you have some idea of the impact of Five Star.
Led by the populist Matteo Salvini, in the March election the League’s centre-right coalition won most of Northern Italy, while the Five Star movement under new leader Luigi Di Maio won the south. The Democratic Party and centre-left coalition of previous Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was swept aside in all but a few cities. Berlusconi’s regurgitated Forza Italia party is part of Salvini’s coalition and came fourth in the popular vote which was won overall by Five Star. It is important to note that Five Star is on its own and not in formal coalition with any other group.
As with many elections in recent Italian history, no party or coalition won enough seats to form a government. Salvini and Di Maio cosied up to each other and it looked as though they had agreement on enough policies to form a government under a “clean” – ie novice – prime minister designate Giuseppe Conte.
But a key element of the new government would be that Paolo Savona would be in charge of the finance ministry.
The markets took fright because Savona is a fierce Eurosceptic and hates Italy being humbled by Germany, France and the Eurozone in general over its fragile economy. He is rumoured to have had a plan to pull Italy out of the euro while both Five Star and the League are reported to have discussed pulling out of the EU altogether.
Cue chaos, and the intervention of President Sergio Mattarella.
WHAT DID HE DO?
AS president, Mattarella – formerly of the Democratic Party – is supposed to be above party political considerations but he couldn’t stomach the idea of Savona being finance minister (Chancellor in our terms) and vetoed the choice. He actually cited the nervousness in the markets as a reason for not allowing Savona in.
The would-be government collapsed on the spot as both Five Star and the League’s coalition wanted Savona. Five Star’s Di Maio was furious, calling for Mattarella to be impeached, while the League’s Salvini called for a new election, no doubt inspired by the fact that his party is soaring in the opinion polls.
The markets fell around the world as the chaos in Italy began to be sensed, not least after the president put forward a candidate to form a new Government, known as a technocratic administration, named Carlo Cottarelli, an unelected International Monetary Fund economist and member of the Italy’s infamous Spending Review Commission which made our Tory Government’s spending review look wimpish as it cut public spending by an eye-watering €80 billion in the past three years, with 86,000 public sector jobs cut. Cottarelli earned the nickname Mr Scissors, and he’s not very popular.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
THERE won’t be an election now, but with Salvini rejecting Di Maio’s call for a joint effort to form a new government, it seems almost inevitable that after Cottarelli has been in the job for a few months, he will call for a new general election. In fact he has already said he will do so early in 2019 – around about the time of Brexit, perhaps.
That will be the real crunch time for Italy, the euro and the European Union, for if the League or Five Star get into power either individually or jointly, the chaos so far will seem like nothing. It might even make Brexit seem orderly. Nah, no chance of that.
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