BRITAIN’S leading polling expert has predicted the Scottish Conservatives will not overtake Labour to become the main opposition party in the Scottish Parliament after next month’s election.
In an interview John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, the one psephologist who forecast that the Tories would win an overall majority at last year’s General Election, suggested he did not believe they would beat Labour on May 5.
His remarks follow repeated statements by Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, that her party can and should replace Labour as Holyrood’s second party and main opposition to the SNP.
But Curtice suggested the chances of the Tories overtaking Labour next month are slim.
“The question is how far the Labour party can fall,” he said.
“We’re certainly not talking about a fundamental change in the popularity of the Tories. They are running towards the high end of what they’ve been at since 1977.”
The pollster whose reputation was enhanced because of the exit poll he oversaw for the BBC last May predicting a Tory win, said while he believed the SNP would win at May’s Holyrood election, there remained a “slight” doubt over whether it would be in a position to form a majority government.
“The SNP is going to win,” he told the Sunday Times, “There is at most a slight question as to whether they will absolutely, definitely get an overall majority.”
He added: “The SNP’s problem is that they can win an election, but they can’t guarantee to deliver independence. Meanwhile, the Unionists can’t win an election.”
Curtice said it was harder to forecast the outcome of the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, which takes place on June 23, and he believed the campaign to remain in the EU faced a tough fight.
“Cameron’s renegotiation has had no impact,” he said.
“Even if it’s close to 60:40 (in favour of remaining), there’s a real fight on their hands.
“Certainly if the UK does vote to leave the EU, the implications for Scotland and Ireland would be pretty severe. I don’t think anybody could say what would happen.
“The balls would certainly be thrown up into the air and I’m not sure how they would land.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here