POLLSTERS ICM seem to be hedging their bets on the outcome of the EU referendum with two new polls giving completely different results.
The polls, carried out for the Guardian, showed those who were spoken to by ICM on the phone would vote to remain in by 47 per cent to 39 per cent. However, those who took part in the internet poll said they would vote to leave 47 per cent to 43 per cent.
All those taking part were asked the same questions over the same period of time. And the method of analysing the date is similar. Puzzled pollster Martin Boon from ICM admits he doesn’t know why that difference exists.
“If you want to ask me, which is unlikely, the answer you’d get is ‘I just don’t know’. I can see reasons why phone polls overstate Remain shares, and reasons why online polls overstate Leave shares.”
People might then expect the reality to be somewhere in the middle, but that, says Boon, is not borne out by the evidence. “Polling has often depended on hidden error cancelling itself out, but it seems increasingly unlikely that pollsters can depend on that on this occasion.” In ICM’s phone poll when the 14 per cent of undecideds are removed remain looks set for a clear 10-point lead, by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.
When the don’t knows are removed from the online survey, however, the result is 52 per cent to 48 per cent in favour of Brexit.
ICM Unlimited interviewed 1,002 people by phone, and 2,048 people online on 13-15th May 2016.
Professor John Curtice said the new data from the ICM poll left his poll of polls unchanged, with both Remain and Leave on 50 per cent each.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here