THE SNP are set for a landslide at the 2016 Holyrood elections, according to a new poll from TNS.
The same poll was a devastating read for Scottish Labour as it suggested former supporters would rather not vote at all than back the beleaguered party. Only half of people who voted Labour in May say they will definitely vote for Labour next year. The figures are 51 per cent on the constituency vote and 46 per cent on the list vote.
Sixty-two per cent of voters said they would be backing the SNP in the constituency vote at next year’s Scottish Parliament elections, more than three times as many as are backing Labour.
A total of 54 per cent said they will back the SNP in the list vote, an increase of three per cent.
The research, which was carried out between July 10 and August showed support for Labour in both the constituency ballot and the regional list at 20 per cent.
There was good news too for the Greens, who it is predicted would take nine seats on the eight per cent of the regional vote the poll suggested would back them next May. According to Weber Shandwick’s Scotland Votes site, the polling would see the SNP take 78 seats, Labour 25, the Tories15, the Greens on nine and the Lib Dems on two.
The poll also asked Scottish voters to rate how the Scottish Government were doing over key areas. There was mostly good news for the SNP, with more voters thinking they were doing a good job than a poor job on the economy, the NHS and education.
However, there was criticism for the Scottish Government’s record on crime and justice. 29 per cent of voters thought the government was doing a poor job, compared to 23 per cent who thought they were doing a good job. A total of 1,029 people aged 16 or over were questioned by TNS for the research.
Ailsa Henderson, professor of political science at the University of Edinburgh and a fellow of the Centre for Constitutional Change, said there was a lot to take from the poll.
Henderson said: “If you combine all the people who haven’t decided how they’re going to vote, or weren’t going to vote, or refused to answer the questions, it’s 43 per cent of the sample. That’s almost half the electorate. That’s pretty high.
“What’s is also striking if you look at those undecided figures across the party, Labour, Lib Dem, Conservative supporters – between a third and a half of them are undecided. Whereas with the SNP it’s 14 per cent. They’re hanging on to their supporters in a way that the other parties aren’t.”
The professor continued: “If you look at turnout figures in some of those tables, Labour supporters weren’t voting. More than any other party. The crisis of Labour is not just that it’s losing supporters to the SNP, though it is: their long-term Labour supporters who don’t want to vote for the SNP just don’t want to vote.”
SNP business convener Derek Mackay welcomed the poll: “This is another exceptional poll showing support for the SNP remains at extraordinary levels after eight years in Government – it is also a vote of confidence in our 56 new SNP MPs, who are working hard for Scotland and have already secured Tory climbdowns on issues such as English votes for English laws, fox hunting and the Human Rights Act.”
Mackay added: “We take absolutely nothing for granted, and will keep working hard every day between now and next year’s Holyrood election to retain the trust of people right across Scotland as we look to build on our record of delivery and success.”
Patrick Harvie said his party were ready to stand up and be the effective opposition to the SNP. “While Labour continues to tear itself apart, Scottish Greens are engaging in local communities and we’re finding people are open to our big ideas on jobs and the economy,” he said. “We have real strengths in the parliament we want to build on. Alison Johnstone has led the way on opposition to unconventional gas extraction and support for energy efficient housing, while also winning football fans the right to buy their clubs. And John Finnie brought the whole issue of armed policing to the fore.”
Scottish Labour acting leader Iain Gray said: “The road back for Scottish Labour is going to be long and difficult. There can be no quick fix. With a new leader to be announced on Saturday we will spend the coming weeks and months seeking to win back the trust of the people of Scotland.”
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