THE SNP narrowly beat Labour when it came to taking the constituency spoils in Glasgow in 2011, winning five seats, with the other four going to Labour. Among those that Labour won, however, 2,079 votes was the largest margin of victory over the SNP. That came in Glasgow Provan where Paul Martin held the seat.
With the SNP sweeping the board in the city at last year’s General Election, it is difficult to see how Labour can hold back the SNP tide in any of the Glasgow constituencies this time.
The SNP’s Ivan McKee is challenging Martin in Provan; Humza Yousaf is up against Labour’s former leader Johann Lamont in Pollok; Bob Doris is standing against former Labour minister Patricia Ferguson in Maryhill and Springburn; and Clare Haughey is the SNP candidate in Rutherglen, where James Kelly is attempting to hold the seat for Labour.
It would not be a surprise if Glasgow becomes an SNP constituency city at Holyrood as well as Westminster. Therefore, Labour will likely have to rely on the regional list to maintain a foothold. While it is struggling in the polls, the fact it is likely to lose most – if not all – of its constituency seats in Glasgow means it can be expected to hold on to three list seats, and could possibly come away with four. Much will depend on turnout.
The Conservatives only achieved six per cent on the list in 2011, but a modest boost to their vote could potentially see them return two list members, although maintaining their current tally of one would be seen as a decent result.
Ruth Davidson has switched to the Lothian region and tops the Conservative’s list there, Professor Adam Tomkins being her replacement at the top of the Glasgow list.
The Greens took one list seat in 2011, and anything fewer than two would be seen as a disappointment. The SNP list vote is likely to be under significant pressure from the Greens and, to a lesser extent, Rise, for whom The National columnist Cat Boyd is the lead candidate.
Both the Greens and Rise have a relatively strong presence in Glasgow, and it will be interesting to see how well the SNP list vote holds up compared to other regions where these parties have less of a presence. If the Labour vote turns out and manages to deliver a better result than national polls suggest, and if the pro-independence left bloc splinters significantly enough away from the SNP, then we may well see the SNP fail to return a list MSP in this region.
Craig McAngus is a lecturer in the department of politics and international relations at the University of Aberdeen and the centre of constitutional change at the University of Edinburgh
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