This region ranges from Dumbarton, where the Faslane nuclear base is situated, to Eastwood, which includes the highest value properties in Scotland outside Edinburgh.
Eastwood will perhaps be the most interesting of the West Scotland constituencies to watch on election night. Previously a Conservative / Labour marginal (since a young Jim Murphy took the seat from the Conservatives in 1997), the rise of the SNP sees it become one of the few three-way marginals in this election.
Jackson Carlaw is looking to unseat Labour’s Ken Macintosh who won the seat by only 2000 votes last time. The SNP’s Stewart Maxwell is hoping to leapfrog from third place in 2011 to the winners podium this year. Word on the ground is that the Tories might just retake this seat.
Also under threat is Jackie Baillie in Dumbarton, though she is first placed on Labour’s list so will be back at Holyrood regardless. Her staunch support of the Faslane workers may help her defend her 1,639 majority against local SNP councillor Gail Robertson.
New faces will definitely be elected in Cunninghame South where Ruth Maguire is looking to hold on to the seat for the SNP, Renfrewshire South where Labour’s Hugh Henry has been succeeded by Councillor Paul O’Kane – fighting against the SNP tide in the person of Tom Arthur, and also in Strathkelvin and Bearsden where Labour’s Margaret McCarthy is hoping to unseat Fiona McLeod’s SNP successor, Rona Mackay.
Once all those constituencies have been decided, we move on to the regional list seats. In 2011 the six SNP constituency winners were joined by two list MSPs, and Labour’s four constituencies were topped up by three list seats.
The last two list seats went to the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats haven’t had a presence in the region since their vote collapsed in 2011 and they seem unlikely to reverse that this year. If they do, and that’s an enormous if, long-time candidate Katy Gordon will become the only Liberal Democrat woman elected at either Holyrood or Westminster.
If Jackson Carlaw doesn’t win Eastwood he will be re-elected as the first Conservative list candidate. It seems inevitable he will be joined by Jamie Greene in second place, and possibly Maurice Golden in third if the formerly strong Conservative vote in the region returns.
Ditto for Jackie Baillie, as mentioned, and she should be joined by Neil Bibby and Mary Fee. If Ken Macintosh can’t hold Eastwood the loss of the seat in the d’Hondt calculations may see him squeeze back in as the fourth list candidate for Labour, especially if the SNP win all ten constituencies.
Even if the SNP don’t get the clean sweep, of their first five list candidates only Stewart Maxwell will possibly need the list to be re-elected.
If their total vote share is large enough to win them a second list seat (or a first if Stewart wins Eastwood), then the sixth placed Ian McDougall, finance spokesperson for Business for Scotland, could find himself a surprise MSP.
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